000 AXNT20 KNHC 282351 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SUN NOV 28 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W WESTWARD ALONG 6N20W 7N30W 6N40W 6N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 28W AND 35W ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 25N81W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 24N85W BECOMING A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 22N92W TO 18N93W. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS LOST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND IT IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETELY DISSIPATE BY MONDAY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND DRY SW FLOW ALOFT COVER THE BASIN SUPPRESSING MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ALLOWING FOR JUST A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA KEYS AND WITHIN 50 NM OF THE FRONT. RETURN FLOW 15-20 KT IS OBSERVED OVER THE WESTERN GULF W OF 93W...AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE NW BASIN WITH CONVECTION AND GUSTY WINDS ON MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...A SURFACE TO MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL BASIN CARRYING CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 15N71W TO PANAMA ALONG 12N76W 9N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 15N BETWEEN 68W AND 77W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS W OF 80W S OF 15N. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN...PROVIDED BY THE UPPER LEVEL ANTI CYCLONIC ENVIRONMENT. THE OVERALL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE SAME AREA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SUB-TROPICAL UPPER LEVEL JETSTREAK IS FOUND IN THE WEST ATLC ENHANCING A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N57W...EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 27N70W...WHERE IT BECOMES A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 26N77W...AND STARTS TO DISSIPATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA ALONG 26N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 80 NM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 26N62W DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS W OF 36W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE EASTERN ATLC SUPPORTS A 933 MB OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR 29N36W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER ALONG 26N33W 24N38W 25N43W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS NORTH FROM THE CENTER ALONG 32N35W TO NEAR 31N25W...WHERE A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO THE E...AND A COLD FRONT TO THE S ALONG 23N26W 19N34W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WELL EAST OF THE LOW CENTER AND COLD FRONT...N OF 22N E OF 24W. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION CORRELATES WITH THE STRONGEST AREA OF DIFFLUENCE FLOW ALOFT. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 24N E OF 42W AND SEAS 17-21 FT IN NW SWELL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA