000
AXNT20 KNHC 281758
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 PM EST SUN NOV 28 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...
 
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 6N25W 6N40W EQ51W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 
30W-40W

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 
SOUTH FLORIDA NEAR 26N80W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 24N87W 
22N92W 18N93W.  THE FRONT BEGAN TO WEAKEN AFTER ITS UPPER LEVEL 
SUPPORT PUSHED E OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ERN CONUS TO OUT 
OVER THE W ATLC WATERS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING NOW COVERS THE BASIN 
ALONG WITH DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE DAMPENING MOST OF THE SHOWER 
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A FEW 
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE SRN FLORIDA KEYS...AND 
POSSIBLE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. SURFACE RIDING IS BEHIND THE 
FRONT CENTERED OVER E CENTRAL MEXICO...AND TO THE N OVER W 
VIRGINIA. A SURFACE TROUGH LINES THE E TEXAS COASTLINE WITH NO 
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS. EXPECT THE FRONT TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN 
TONIGHT BEFORE A STRONGER FRONT PUSHES INTO THE NW GULF OF 
MEXICO LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A HORIZONTALLY ALIGNED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN 
WITH AXIS ALONG 14N CENTERED N OF VENEZUELA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY 
INDICATES DRY AIR TO THE N OF 17N WHICH IS MAINTAINING MOSTLY 
FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NRN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. TO THE 
S...MOISTER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AROUND THE 
RIDGE IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N-16N 
BETWEEN 65W-75W...AND FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 76W-81W. SOME OF THE 
THESE SHOWERS ARE ALSO ENHANCED BY A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING 
FROM 15N71W TO NE COLOMBIA NEAR 10N73W. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT 
ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N63W EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE 
NW BAHAMAS TO S FLORIDA NEAR 26N79W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 
120 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB 
HIGH NEAR 27N60W DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC PROVIDING 
MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING NEE FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.  
FARTHER E...A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS DOMINATING THE E 
ATLC ANCHORED BY A 993 MB OCCLUDED LOW NEAR 29N36W. A SURFACE 
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER ALONG 27N36W 26N42W 29N 47W. 
AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS EAST FROM THE CENTER ALONG 30N TO NEAR 
30N26W WHERE A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO THE E...AND A COLD FRONT 
TO THE S ALONG 23N30W 18N42W. THE SURFACE LOW IS SUPPORTED BY AN 
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 32N30W. NUMEROUS 
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE COLD FRONT FROM 21N-26N 
BETWEEN 23W-28W...AND N OF 26N BETWEEN 16W-23W IN THE AREA OF 
STRONGEST DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NOTED BEHIND 
THE FRONT N OF 27N E OF 45W. A WEAK 1014 MB SURFACE HIGH IS SE 
OF THE FRONT CENTERED NEAR 12N6W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON