000 AXNT20 KNHC 280001 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SAT NOV 27 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N13W 6N23W 8N36W 7N49W 9N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 37W-49W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS ALSO N OF THE AXIS FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 33W-57W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ERN CANADA DOWN THE ERN CONUS TO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM LAKE OKEECHOBEE FLORIDA NEAR 27N81W TOWARDS THE SW GULF ALONG 24N88W 21N92W BECOMING STATIONARY TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 18N93W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM BEHIND THE FRONT. N TO NE WINDS UP TO 25 KTS FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. AN ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS FROM EARLIER TODAY INDICATES 30 KT WINDS IN THE FAR SW GULF ALONG THE MEXICAN COASTLINE. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS DUE TO DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BEHIND THE FRONT CURRENTLY ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH ON THE ERN TEXAS COAST NEAR 30N96W. EXPECT THE FRONT TO CONTINUE TO PUSH SE ACROSS THE BASIN AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES NE OVER THE ERN CONUS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A NARROW AND HORIZONTALLY ALIGNED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 13N. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY AIR TO THE N OF 16N WHICH IS MAINTAINING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NRN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. TO THE S...MOISTER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AROUND THE RIDGE IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE VENEZUELA...COLOMBIA...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA COASTLINES. THE AREAS OF STRONGEST ACTIVITY ARE S OF 13N BETWEEN 76W-82W...AND S OF 14N BETWEEN 65W-70W NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 14N67W TO 10N70W. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ALSO ENHANCED BY SURFACE CONVERGENCE AS THE STRONGER TRADE WINDS HIT WEAKER WINDS ALONG THE COASTLINE. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN CONUS AND W ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N71W EXTENDING SW TO NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE FLORIDA AT 27N81W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT..AND 75 NM BEHIND THE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 28N61W DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS. SOME POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTES N OF THE SE BAHAMAS FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN 70W-73W. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING NNE FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. FARTHER E...A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS DOMINATING THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 988 MB LOW OCCLUDED LOW NEAR 34N33W. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N26W ALONG 25N31W 19N43W DISSIPATING TO NEAR 18N49W. THE SURFACE LOW IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 33N35W. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 250 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 23N IN THE AREA OF STRONGEST DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NOTED BEHIND THE FRONT N OF 28N E OF 45W. A WEAK 1014 MB SURFACE HIGH IS SE OF THE FRONT CENTERED JUST OFF THE W AFRICA COAST NEAR 21N17W SUPPORTED BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS W AFRICA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON