000 AXNT20 KNHC 271125 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SAT NOV 27 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N16W 06N30W 08N47W 06N56W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-05N BETWEEN 25W-31W... AND FROM 07N-12N BETWEEN 34W-43W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-14N BETWEEN 46W-55W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS STRETCHES FROM THE SE CONUS TO THE NW GULF WATERS NEAR 28N94W AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT AT 27/0900 UTC EXTENDS INTO THE NE GULF NEAR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION THEN SW ALONG 28N83W 23N92W THEN SOUTH TO THE SOUTHERN MEXICO COAST NEAR 18N93W. THE FRONT LACKS ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION...HOWEVER...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. WHILE MOST PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN RANGE OF THE FRONT...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TO 30 KT ARE OBSERVED WEST OF THE FRONT AND ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY LATE SATURDAY. ELSEWHERE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF EAST OF THE COLD FRONT...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING IS PROVIDING FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SE GULF AND FLORIDA STRAITS THIS MORNING S OF 26N E OF 86W. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATES OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BASIN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 07N54W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 18N90W. MOST OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS LOCATED WITHIN 300 NM SOUTH OF THIS AXIS AND THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN S OF 16N. A PORTION OF THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 10N OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN PROVIDING FOCUS FOR CONVERGENT NE TRADES AND GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 14N BETWEEN 77W-84W. FARTHER EAST...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ALSO OCCURRING OVER COASTAL VENEZUELA...THE LESSER ANTILLES...AND SE CARIBBEAN S OF 16N E OF 70W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N76W TO DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA AND REMAINS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PROGRESSING ACROSS THE SE CONUS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE...MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 62W...AND THE ASSOCIATED 1019 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 28N62W. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WHICH COVERS THE AREA N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IS PROVIDING FOR OVERALL STABLE AND RATHER TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THIS MORNING... HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS EAST OF THE BAHAMAS ISLANDS FROM 20N-27N BETWEEN 68W-74W. FARTHER EAST...AN EASTERN ATLC UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 34N36W AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N31W THEN EXTENDS SW ALONG 30N31W 21N40W BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE TO 19N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE LOCATED WITHIN 150 NM EAST OF THE FRONT N OF 24N. ELSEWHERE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1014 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 21N24W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN