000 AXNT20 KNHC 270555 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SAT NOV 27 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 07N30W 09N51W 08N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-09N BETWEEN 23W-29W... AND FROM 04N-10N BETWEEN 33W-42W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-13N BETWEEN 47W-57W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH AXIS STRETCHED FROM THE SE CONUS TO EASTERN TEXAS SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT AT 27/0300 UTC EXTENDS INTO THE GULF NEAR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION THEN SW ALONG 29N84W 24N92W THEN SOUTH TO THE SOUTHERN MEXICO COAST NEAR COATZACOALCOS. THE FRONT LACKS ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION...HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. WHILE MOST PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN RANGE OF THE FRONT...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TO 30 KT ARE OBSERVED WEST OF THE FRONT AND ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY LATE SATURDAY. ELSEWHERE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF EAST OF THE COLD FRONT...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND WEAK TROUGHING IS PROVIDING FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SE GULF AND FLORIDA STRAITS S OF 26N E OF 87W. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATES OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BASIN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 07N52W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 18N90W. MOST OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS LOCATED WITHIN 300 NM SOUTH OF THIS AXIS AND THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN S OF 16N. A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 08N75W TO 12N83W IS PROVIDING LOW-LEVEL FOCUS OF CONVERGENT NE TRADES AND GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 13N BETWEEN 77W-85W. FARTHER EAST...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ALSO OCCURRING OVER NORTHERN VENEZUELA...THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND SE CARIBBEAN S OF 16N E OF 69W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... WHILE A COLD FRONT LIES ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. COASTLINE SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING ACROSS THE SE CONUS...MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 65W...AND ASSOCIATED 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 29N64W. THE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH COVERS THE AREA N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IS PROVIDING FOR OVERALL STABLE AND RATHER TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. SW WINDS EAST OF THE COLD FRONT GENERALLY REMAIN N OF 30N BETWEEN 70W-82W...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. FARTHER EAST...AN EASTERN ATLC UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 33N36W AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N33W AND EXTENDS SW ALONG 30N33W 22N45W BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE TO 19N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE LOCATED WITHIN 150 NM EAST OF THE FRONT N OF 24N. ELSEWHERE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1016 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 22N26W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN