000 AXNT20 KNHC 261738 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST FRI NOV 26 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 5N19W 6N37W 10N53W 9N62W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 46W-58W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N E OF 5W TO ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN...FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 12W-16W...FROM 1N-8N BETWEEN 33W-40W...AND FROM 9N-13N E OF 58W ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 40W-45 AND FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 38W-46W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER TROUGH WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING OVER CANADA IS ENTERING THE FAR NW GULF FROM SE LOUISIANA TO NE MEXICO SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 26/1500 UTC ENTERS THE GULF OVER MOBILE BAY ALABAMA ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA ALONG 29N90W 26N95W THEN TURNS SHARPLY S ALONG 23N96W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO BETWEEN TAMPICO AND TUXPAN BECOMING STATIONARY ALONG THE SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. A DISTINCT ROPE CLOUD DELINEATES THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH DENSE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS SPREADING W OF THE FRONT TO INLAND OVER THE AREA FROM LOUISIANA TO NE MEXICO. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED JUST E OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT E OF A LINE FROM PANAMA CITY FLORIDA TO TAMPICO MEXICO. THE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC IS GIVING THE GULF E OF THE FRONT SE SURFACE FLOW. THIS SURFACE FLOW IS DRAWING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS CUBA TO OVER THE E GULF WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS E OF 85W TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. OTHERWISE FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO PROGRESS E ACROSS THE GULF STALLING ACROSS THE SE GULF SAT AND DISSIPATING ON SUN. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM HONDURAS NEAR 15N84W ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA NEAR 9N78W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 9N76W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM NE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC COVERS THE N CARIBBEAN N OF 16N W OF PUERTO RICO WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR N OF THIS SAME BOUNDARY. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE DEEP TROPICS COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING ALONG THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE S CARIBBEAN. THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND COUPLED WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE IS ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AS WELL AS SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N E OF 76W ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND INCLUDING THE ABC ISLANDS. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE N CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 60W AND IS ANCHORED E OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 26N75W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVER THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF 50W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH 300 NM SW OF BERMUDA NEAR 29N68W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 20N BETWEEN 35W-60W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N39W EXTENDING ALONG 23N49W 21N59W TO 23N69W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 26N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM OF A LINE FROM 25N42W TO BEYOND 32N34W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N42W ALONG 20N50W TO 17N58W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. A SECOND UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR NE ATLC N OF 25N E OF 25W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE E ATLC NEAR 32N11W EXTENDING S TO BETWEEN THE COAST OF MOROCCO AFRICA AND THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 28N14W. A WEAK SURFACE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A WEAK 1014 MB HIGH NEAR 22N29W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW