000 AXNT20 KNHC 261149 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST FRI NOV 26 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... FROM THE SIERRA LEONE/LIBERIA COASTAL BORDER TO 6N22W 4N40W... AND INDISTINCT AFTER 4N40W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 1N TO 2N BETWEEN 1E AND 2W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 11N TO THE EAST OF 43W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 6N BETWEEN 44W AND 50W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 12N47W 7N46W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 44W AND 46W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 13N56W 7N55W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 7N TO 12N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. A THIRD SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 13N59W 8N62W 4N62W NEAR THE VENEZUELA/BRAZIL BORDER. STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE IN GUYANA ARE WITHIN A 30 NM TO 45 NM RADIUS OF 6N60W...AND IN BRAZIL WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 1N BETWEEN 61W AND 63W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. A COLD FRONT IS PASSING THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF WATERS...TO SOUTH TEXAS...AND THEN CURVING NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES MEXICO FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF 20N96W 28N90W BEYOND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE EAST OF 90W...AND FROM 20N TO 26N TO THE WEST OF 93W... IN CLUSTERS OF LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR CURACAO FOR THE TIME PERIOD ENDING AT 26/0000 UTC WAS 2.10 INCHES. RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 66W AND 70W IN THE NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA COASTAL WATERS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL TROUGH IS AIDING THIS PRECIPITATION. THE WIND REGIME THAT IS ON TOP OF COASTAL VENEZUELA CONSISTS OF UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL TO LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY FLOW. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALSO COVERS THE COASTAL PLAINS FROM TRINIDAD AND VENEZUELA TO COLOMBIA AND EASTERN PANAMA...AND SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTH AMERICA. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO THE SOUTH OF 14N TO THE WEST OF 77W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 81W/82W FROM PANAMA NEAR 7N TO 16N. OTHER POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS IN CLUSTERS OF LOW CLOUDS ARE TO THE EAST OF 81W...MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST...ORIGINALLY FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 60W. CLUSTERS OF LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO THE SOUTH OF 25N...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 78W. LARGE-SCALE DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...WITH A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N42W 25N50W 23N60W 25N70W...AND AS A REMNANT CLOUD LINE FROM 25N70W TO 31N77W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS WITHIN 180 NM TO 320 NM TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE COLD FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT/REMNANT CLOUD LINE. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT/REMNANT CLOUD LINE. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW EXITS THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 18N61W AND IT CONTINUES TO THE SOUTH OF 21N34W BEYOND 25N15W. A SECOND MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. CYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 25N TO THE EAST OF 30W. THE COLD FRONT THAT IS WITH THIS SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH 32N14W...THE CENTRAL CANARY ISLANDS...TO 24N20W. ANY POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 24N TO THE EAST OF 31W...IN CLUSTERS OF LOW CLOUDS. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 14N TO 30N BETWEEN 20W AND THE SURFACE TROUGH...AROUND A 1014 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 22N33W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT