000 AXNT20 KNHC 260600 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST FRI NOV 26 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... FROM THE SIERRA LEONE COAST NEAR 7N12W 3N30W 4N44W...INTO NORTHERN FRENCH GUIANA. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE LIBERIA COAST FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 10W AND 12W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 50W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 12N42W 8N44W 3N45W. THE CLOSEST PRECIPITATION TO THE TROUGH IS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 35W AND 40W... AND ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THAT COVER THE WATERS FROM 6N TO 11N BETWEEN 41W AND 44W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 12N59W...TO VENEZUELA NEAR 9N61W...TO THE VENEZUELA/BRAZIL BORDER NEAR 4N62W. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN CENTRAL GUYANA FROM 4N TO 5N BETWEEN 58W AND 59W...AND IN VENEZUELA AND BRAZIL FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 62W AND 64W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTH OF 13N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH HAD BEEN ABOUT 300 NM TO THE EAST OF THE VENEZUELA/BRAZIL TROUGH 24 HOURS AGO. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N70W TO 30N80W...TO 26N91W IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO 24N95W IN THE WEST CENTRAL GULF. A COLD FRONT IS PASSING THROUGH TEXAS...FROM EAST TEXAS TO THE COASTAL PLAINS...TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS NEAR 28N100W ALONG THE BORDER WITH MEXICO. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES MEXICO FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...AT LEAST INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE EAST OF 90W IN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CLUSTERS. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF 30N88W 24N98W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR CURACAO FOR THE TIME PERIOD ENDING AT 26/0000 UTC WAS 2.10 INCHES. THIS AMOUNT MOST PROBABLY WAS HELPED BY THE PRESENCE OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND RAINSHOWERS THAT PERSISTED NEAR THERE AND ALONG THE VENEZUELA COAST DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE WIND REGIME THAT IS ON TOP OF COASTAL VENEZUELA CONSISTS OF UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL TO LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY FLOW. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALSO COVERS THE COASTAL PLAINS FROM TRINIDAD AND VENEZUELA TO COLOMBIA AND EASTERN PANAMA...AND SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REST OF THE SOUTH AMERICA. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO THE SOUTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 78W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 81W/82W FROM PANAMA NEAR 7N TO 16N. OTHER POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS IN CLUSTERS OF LOW CLOUDS ARE TO THE EAST OF 80W...MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 60W. CLUSTERS OF LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO THE SOUTH OF 24N. LARGE-SCALE DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...WITH A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N43W 27N50W 24N60W...AND DISSIPATING FROM 24N60W TO 30N77W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N38W 28N41W 26N45W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT TO THE WEST OF 60W...MOVING AROUND THE 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N70W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW EXITS THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 18N61W AND IT CONTINUES TO THE SOUTH OF 21N34W BEYOND 25N15W. A SECOND MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. CYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 25N TO THE EAST OF 30W. THE COLD FRONT THAT IS WITH THIS SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH 32N16W...THE WESTERN CANARY ISLANDS...TO 25N20W. ANY POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE EAST OF 23W. OTHER POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 25N TO THE EAST OF 32W...IN CLUSTERS OF LOW CLOUDS. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 14N TO 30N BETWEEN 20W AND 43W...AROUND A 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 23N35W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT