000 AXNT20 KNHC 251745 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST THU NOV 25 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 5N22W 1N31W 2N43W 1N52W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 4N10W 4N14W TO 7N16W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 19W-37W AND WITHIN 45 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 40W-43W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT GIVING THE GULF SW UPPER FLOW. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA COAST IS GIVING THE GULF SE TO S SURFACE FLOW. THIS SURFACE FLOW IS DRAWING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 26N87W ACROSS THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS TO 24N80W. OTHERWISE FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE GULF LATER THIS EVENING PROGRESSING E ACROSS THE GULF STALLING ACROSS THE SE GULF LATE SAT. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE SW GULF EXTENDING FROM 16N78W TO THE COAST OF PANAMA NEAR 9N82W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N E OF THE TROUGH TO 78W AND S OF 14N W OF THE TROUGH TO INLAND OVER NICARAGUA AND TO THE COAST OF COSTA RICA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE TROUGH. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF LINE FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS W ACROSS SW HAITI TO THE TIP OF NICARAGUA/HONDURAS WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR N AND W OF THIS SAME BOUNDARY. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE DEEP TROPICS COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN. THIS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND COUPLED WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE IS ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AS WELL AS SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY S OF 13N BETWEEN 64W-70W INCLUDING THE ABC ISLANDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 15N BETWEEN 70W-76W. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 65W AND IS ANCHORED OVER THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 25N78W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVER THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF 55W AND S OF 28N BETWEEN 40W-55W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-65W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N50W EXTENDING WSW ALONG 28N62W THEN W TO 29N73W WHERE IT DISSIPATES AS A STATIONARY FRONT NW OUT OF THE REGION TO THE COAST OF CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 29N WITH ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM SE OF THE FRONT E OF 63W. AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL SHOWERS IS TO THE SE OF THE FRONT WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 27N48W TO 23N56W. A SECOND UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR NE ATLC N OF 25N E OF 35W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE E ATLC NEAR 32N19W EXTENDING SSW TO 24N25W WITH A WEAK POST-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 32N24W TO 26N27W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 28N BETWEEN 18W-26W AND N OF 26N E OF 18W TO THE COAST OF NW AFRICA INCLUDING THE CANARY ISLANDS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE TROPICAL ATLC N OF THE ITCZ EXTENDING FROM 11N40W TO 6N42W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 125 NM E OF THE TROUGH AND FROM 9N-12N W OF THE TROUGH TO 47W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1010 MB LOW INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA ALONG 9N61W TO 12N58W AND CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 225 NM E OF THE TROUGH AND SCATTERED ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE TROUGH INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND TRINIDAD/TOBAGO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW