000 AXNT20 KNHC 250559 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST THU NOV 25 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... 5N11W 5N27W 9N36W 7N42W 10N52W 9N59W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 19W AND 22W...AND WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 7N26W AND 1N30W. MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 11N TO THE EAST OF 45W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 34W/35W FROM 6N TO 11N. IT IS NOT EASY TO DIFFERENTIATE BETWEEN PRECIPITATION THAT JUST ACCOMPANIES THE TROUGH AND GENERAL ITCZ PRECIPITATION. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 13N51W 9N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 52W AND 54W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 46W AND 50W. A THIRD SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 17N54W 13N58W 9N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM THE COAST OF GUYANA TO 10N BETWEEN 54W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. ONE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. A SECOND AND COMPARATIVELY WEAKER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 26N TO THE EAST OF 90W...TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 88W AND 91W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN MEXICO AND 92W IN THE WATER. EXPECT THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO REACH THE NORTHWESTERN GULF WATERS BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR TRINIDAD FOR THE TIME PERIOD ENDING AT 24/0000 UTC WAS 2.25 INCHES. THIS AMOUNT MOST PROBABLY WAS HELPED BY THE PRESENCE OF THE 17N54W 9N60W SURFACE TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF 12N83W 14N70W BEYOND 16N60W. BROAD LARGE-SCALE SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME CLOUD CLUSTERS THAT ARE PASSING ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF CUBA TO THE EAST OF 80W. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 16N...INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO THE COASTAL WATERS FROM NICARAGUA TO PANAMA AND THE VENEZUELA COASTAL WATERS. SOME CLUSTERS OF LOW CLOUDS... POSSIBLY WITH PRECIPITATION...MAY REACH THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA MOSTLY TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE WEST OF 44W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 23N43W 25N65W TO THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST. THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N55W TO 26N56W. THE SURFACE 980 MB LOW PRESSURE STORM CENTER IS NEAR 43N57W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N61W TO 29N71W TO THE BEGINNING OF A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR 31N79W. THE STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES INLAND BEYOND SOUTHERN GEORGIA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE THE FRONT TO THE EAST OF 65W...AND WITHIN 30 NM TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF FRONT FROM 65W WESTWARD. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW EXITS THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N60W AND IT CONTINUES TO THE SOUTH OF 18N50W 24N30W BEYOND 30N23W. A SECOND DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC SYSTEM IS IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY FEEDS INTO THIS CYCLONE AS IT APPROACHES 30N23W. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N23W TO 25N26W 21N33W AND 19N37W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 27N TO 32N BETWEEN 26W AND 32W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 18W AND 24W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT