000
AXNT20 KNHC 250001
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 PM EST WED NOV 24 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2300 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N14W 6N23W 7N32W 6N43W 7N57W.  
A CONVECTIVE BURST IS OFF THE GUINEA AFRICAN COAST FROM 8N-11N 
BETWEEN 13W-16W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
IS FROM EQ-10N BETWEEN 18W-31W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 37W-45W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER VENEZUELA 
FROM 11N60W TO 5N62W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-14N BETWEEN 50W-64W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS 
WITHIN A 150 NM INLAND OF THE EASTERN VENEZUELA AND GUYANA 
COASTLINES.     

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING CENTERED OVER NRN FLORIDA IS PRODUCING 15-20 KT 
SE FLOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND EASTERLY FLOW OF 
10-15 KT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF. DRY AIR AND 
SUBSIDENCE AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PROVIDING THE ENTIRE 
GULF OF MEXICO WITH FAIR WEATHER AT THIS TIME. EXPECT POSSIBLE 
SHOWERS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND 
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE GULF...AS WELL AS OVER THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER NE VENEZUELA PRODUCING CONVECTION 
ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 13N E OF 68W. 20-25 KT TRADE WINDS COVER 
THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS S OF 
HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED FROM 14N68W TO 15N73W 
WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS CONVERGE WITH SLIGHTLY LIGHTER WINDS. 
FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. AN 
ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA TO NICARAGUA 
COAST ENHANCING THE CONVECTION IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE 
SRN CARIBBEAN S OF 15N.
 
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER N FLORIDA 
NEAR 30N84W EXTENDS OVER MUCH OF THE W ATLANTIC PROVIDING MOSTLY 
FAIR WEATHER. THIS SURFACE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER RIDGE 
EXTENDING FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. A COLD 
FRONT IS APPROACHING THE AREA ALONG 31N W OF 68W ENHANCING 
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE 
TROUGH OVER NE VENEZUELA IS PRODUCING NUMEROUS MODERATE TO 
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 
6N-14N BETWEEN 50W-64W. A 1003 MB LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC 
NEAR 34N24W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO 22N31W 
DISSIPATING TO 20N33W. NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 170 NM E OF 
THE FRONT N OF 24N. THIS SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH ALONG 33W N OF 18N. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLANTIC 
IS COVERED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED S OF THE CAPE VERDE 
ISLANDS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT THE COLD FRONT IN THE W 
ATLC TO PUSH SE BRINGING SHOWERS WITH IT...AS THE FRONT OVER THE 
ERN ATLC PUSHES NE OUT OF THE AREA. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS/WALTON