000 AXNT20 KNHC 222344 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST MON NOV 22 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 07N13W 04N34W 05N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-09N BETWEEN 03W-10W...INCLUDING INTERIOR PORTIONS OF IVORY COAST AND LIBERIA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 08N BETWEEN 22W-37W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 07N55W TO 15N50W AND REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLC. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-12N BETWEEN 43W-53W...AND FROM 06N-12N BETWEEN 54W62W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA N-NE OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND ALONG THE EASTERN CONUS COASTLINE WITH A VERY DRY AND SUBSIDENT AIRMASS LOCATING ALOFT. THIS IS CONTINUING TO SUPPORT A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLC THAT EXTENDS AN AXIS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE SW GULF AND SOUTHERN MEXICO S OF 20N. GENERALLY 15-20 KT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE BASIN THIS EVENING. LATER IN THE WEEK...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND INTRODUCE THE NEXT COLD FRONT INTO NW GULF LATE THURSDAY BRINGING A ROUND OF STRONG N-NE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 10N FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC WESTWARD TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA THEN NW TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. LOCATED BENEATH THIS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 14N83W TO CENTRAL PANAMA NEAR 09N80W. LOW-LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE OF NORTHEASTERLY TRADES IN THE VICINITY OF THIS SURFACE TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS SW OF A LINE FROM 14N83W TO 11N75W...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG NE TRADES... WHICH LOCATE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE W ATLC NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND N-NE ALONG THE U.S. SEABOARD... OVERALL GRADUAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-70W. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SUPPORTS AN EXPANSIVE 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 38N66W THAT IS PROVIDING MUCH OF THE W ATLC WITH NE TO E WINDS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...FARTHER EAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS MORE PRONOUNCED...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N41W AND EXTENDS SW TO 28N52W THEN NW TO BEYOND 32N65W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. OVER THE EASTERN ATLC...A WEAKNESS WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS LOCATED BETWEEN 20W-40W WHERE A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N26W TO 23N38W. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT APPEARS WEAK ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THUS ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WEST OF THE FRONT AND MORE LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL TROUGHING FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 38W-46W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN