000 AXNT20 KNHC 192353 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST FRI NOV 19 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N12W WESTWARD ALONG 5N20W 4N25W 6N32W 7N39W. RESUMING NEAR 6N43W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 3N51W. THE SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ THAT HAS BEEN ANALYZED OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS BEEN REPOSITIONED A FEW DEGREES BACK FROM 10N39W TO 1N41W DUE TO ASCAT AND MODEL DATA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N TO 8N BETWEEN 21W AND 43W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... SW FLOW IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IN FOUND EVERYWHERE ACROSS THE GULF THIS EVENING...WITH MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE ONLY AREAS OF WEAK DISTURBANCE ARE LOCATED IN THE NORTH CENTRAL AND FAR SW BASIN RESPECTIVELY. ON THE FIRST AREA...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF MISSISSIPPI NEAR 30N89W EXTENDING SE AND THEN S ALONG 28N87W 25N88W. A WEAK CYCLONIC WIND SHIFT IS NOTED ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS...PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 25 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS N OF 27N. BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA N OF 26N BETWEEN 89W AND 94W. ON THE FAR SW BASIN...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 22N95W TO VERACRUZ NEAR 18N95W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S OF 22N W OF 95W. 20 KT TO 25 KT NE WINDS ARE OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA DUE TO A TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH ON THE NORTH CENTRAL BASIN TO DISSIPATE AND SURFACE RIDGING TO PREVAIL WITH EASTERLY FLOW. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA NEAR THE ANA MARIA CAYS TO TURNEFFE ISLANDS JUST EAST OF BELIZE NEAR 17N88W. THIS FRONT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF 85W FROM 16N TO 20N. LOWER PRESSURE VALUES DOWN TO AROUND 1012 MB CONTINUE IN THIS REGION...AND ALSO POSSIBLY RELATED TO THE DISSIPATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ANALYZED NEAR 17N86W AT 1800 UTC. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN ANALYZED FROM 16N63W TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 10N66W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS S OF 15N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS ARE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADEWINDS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 17N69W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED TO THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN HAS STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LONGWAVE IS OVER THE NW ATLC AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION ALONG 32N57W CONTINUING SW ALONG 26N65W TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 80 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 25N41W MOVING EASTWARD FAIRLY QUICK. THIS FEATURE HAS LEFT BEHIND THE DISSIPATING 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WAS LAST ANALYZED NEAR 25N46W AT 1800 UTC. A 1019 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 29N20W EXTENDING RIDGE AXIS TO NEAR 20N36W. DRY AND STABLE AIR IS NOTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ATLC ON WATER VAPOR AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY...PROVIDING RELATIVELY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO MOVE E WITH SHOWERS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA