000 AXNT20 KNHC 191151 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST FRI NOV 19 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... FROM SOUTHERN SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N12W TO 5N28W AND 7N39W...AND THEN INDISTINCT ELSEWHERE. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W...AND FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 41W AND 43W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 1N TO 3N BETWEEN 38W AND 41W... AND FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 47W AND 48W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 2N TO 3N BETWEEN 12W AND 18W...AND ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL COAST FROM 2N TO 3N. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 11N. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF WATERS. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PART OF ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS TO CUBA NEAR 23N80W AND TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHES FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS...TO THE MEXICO COAST THAT IS JUST ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. IT APPEARS THAT THE TROUGH THAT WAS SUPPORTING THE TROUGH 24 HOURS AGO HAS OUTRUN THE TROUGH...AND IT NOW IS MORE IN PHASE WITH THE TROUGH THAT IS SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT. THE TROUGH IS MARKED BY A ROPE CLOUD. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS...FOG/HAZE...AND POSSIBLE RAIN ARE FROM 16N TO 22N BETWEEN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND 99W IN MEXICO. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN ANDROS ISLAND OF THE BAHAMAS...TO CUBA NEAR 23N80W...INTO THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE BORDER WITH NORTHERN GUATEMALA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 21N84W TO A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 16N86W...CONTINUING INTO SOUTHERN HONDURAS. RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 80W WITH THE FRONT AND THE TROUGH. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND OVER BELIZE AND GUATEMALA LATER TODAY. THE LOW CENTER MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SECTIONS OF BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A SECOND TROUGH IS ALONG 16N63W 13N65W INTO NORTH CENTRAL VENEZUELA NEAR 9N67W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM VENEZUELA NEAR 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 60W AND 72W OFF THE COAST OF THE PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF COLOMBIA. THE ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 57W AND 60W ARE RELATED TO A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH. CLUSTERS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS THAT MAY HAVE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THEM ARE MOVING WESTWARD AND SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TOWARD PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS THAT ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO THE SOUTH OF 14N TO THE WEST OF 77W ARE IN AN AREA OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE TAIL END OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PASSES THROUGH 32N68W TO 27N73W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO 28N70W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N77W...AND BEYOND WESTERN CUBA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO 27N70W BEYOND 32N61W. A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PASSES THROUGH 32N42W TO 25N45W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 15N48W 10N56W TO THE COAST OF GUYANA. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE COASTAL PLAINS/COASTAL WATERS FROM SURINAME TO GUYANA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 24N47W TO 22N47W TO 19N56W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 57W AND 60W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN 35W AND 50W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W...AROUND A 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N22W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT