000 AXNT20 KNHC 190552 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST FRI NOV 19 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... FROM LIBERIA NEAR 6N11W TO 4N20W 5N27W 7N38W 7N48W...INTO NORTHERN FRENCH GUIANA...SURINAME...AND CENTRAL GUYANA. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 27W AND 44W...AND IN NORTHERN GUYANA AND COASTAL WATERS. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 11N. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF WATERS. TWO COLD FRONTS ARE IN THE AREA. THE FIRST COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE SECOND COLD FRONT IS WEAKENING WITH TIME AND IT STRETCHES FROM 1021 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS IN THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS...TO THE MEXICO COAST THAT IS JUST ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO. IT APPEARS THAT THE TROUGH THAT WAS SUPPORTING THE NOW-DISSIPATING COLD FRONT 24 HOURS AGO HAS OUTRUN THE DISSIPATING FRONT...AND IT NOW IS MORE IN PHASE WITH THE TROUGH THAT IS SUPPORTING THE FIRST COLD FRONT. THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS MARKED BY A ROPE CLOUD THAT IS ALONG 30N87W 28N88W 25N90W 23N94W 21N97W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 27N80W 25N88W 22N90W 18N92W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT PRECIPITATION IS IN THIS CLOUDINESS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM WESTERN CUBA TO A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 17N86W...CONTINUING TO NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N TO 17N BETWEEN 84W AND 86W JUST OFF THE COAST OF HONDURAS. A SECOND TROUGH IS ALONG 17N63W 13N66W INTO NORTH CENTRAL VENEZUELA NEAR 9N67W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM VENEZUELA NEAR 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 64W AND 65W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 16N NEAR DOMINICA BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. THE ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 52W AND 60W APPEAR TO BE RELATED TO A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH. CLUSTERS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS THAT MAY HAVE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THEM ARE MOVING WESTWARD AND SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TOWARD PUERTO RICO... HISPANIOLA...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS THAT ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO THE SOUTH OF 12N TO THE WEST OF 80W ARE IN AN AREA OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE TAIL END OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PASSES THROUGH 32N71W TO 28N76W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO 30N70W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS BEYOND THE FLORIDA KEYS. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO 27N71W BEYOND BERMUDA. A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N68W. A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PASSES THROUGH 32N43W TO 27N45W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 18N46W 13N52W 10N57W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N48W TO 21N54W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 52W AND 60W... AND TO THE NORTH OF 19N BETWEEN 35W AND 47W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 45W AND 50W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 38W AND 50W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW GOES FROM 20N TO 32N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W...AROUND A 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N27W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT