000 AXNT20 KNHC 181155 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST THU NOV 18 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... FROM LIBERIA NEAR 6N11W TO 4N20W 5N31W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL THROUGH THE EQUATOR ALONG 50W. SCATTERED STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 60W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 32W/33W TO THE SOUTH OF 10N. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 2N TO 10N BETWEEN 27W AND 35W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA...ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...INTO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA INTO SOUTH TEXAS. A THIN ROPE CLOUD REPRESENTS THIS COLD FRONT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF TEXAS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS ROPE CLOUD. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE FROM 29N80W 24N87W 21N88W...IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. SOME AND/OR ALL OF THIS MOISTURE IS COMING FROM THE WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SURFACE TROUGH. A STATIONARY FRONT GOES FROM 27N78W...ACROSS FLORIDA JUST TO THE SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE...INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...AND CURVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR THE NORTHERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM EASTERN COASTAL NICARAGUA TO EASTERN COASTAL HONDURAS INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 16N TO THE WEST OF 80W...AND POSSIBLY SPILLING OVER CUBA INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 17N59W 10N62W IN NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 15 NM TO 30 NM RADIUS OF 11N67W IN COASTAL VENEZUELA. OTHER RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 15 NM TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM 15N58W TO 13N63W 14N65W 13N67W. CLUSTERS OF LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS THAT WERE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AT 17/1200 UTC HAVE MOVED SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN 60W AND 70W...AND NOW ARE IN THE AREA THAT IS BOUNDED BY 20N60W 14N72W...TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 33N60W TO 20N68W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 56W AND FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N70W TO 27N78W JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 27N78W...ACROSS FLORIDA JUST TO THE SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE...INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 56W AND THE COLD/STATIONARY FRONT. IT MOVES AROUND A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N66W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PASSES THROUGH 32N48W TO 26N46W TO 20N46W AND 13N52W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N50W TO 25N49W 22N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 45W AND 50W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 38W AND 50W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W...MOVES AROUND A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N27W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT