000
AXNT20 KNHC 180551
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 AM EST THU NOV 18 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
 
FROM GUINEA NEAR 9N13W TO 6N30W AND 4N52W 7N33W 5N44W...INTO
NORTHEASTERN FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 5N53W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4N TO 5N BETWEEN 8W AND 10W. ISOLATED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE 
EAST OF 60W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31W/32W 
TO THE SOUTH OF 11N. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 33W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN 
MISSOURI...ARKANSAS...NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...AND LOUISIANA INTO 
THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TEXAS. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE 
COLD FRONT THAT RUNS FROM NORTHEASTERN TEXAS TO SOUTH CENTRAL 
TEXAS. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW 
COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW EVEN IS ON 
TOP OF THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT COVERS THE AREA FROM FLORIDA 
NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
25N86W TO 24N93W. DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS MUCH OF THE AREA.
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CURVES ANTICYCLONICALLY AWAY FROM THE 
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO 
FLORIDA TO THE SOUTH OF 28N TO THE EAST OF 88W. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...MOVING FROM THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS CUBA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 13N81W TO 17N83W TO THE YUCATAN 
CHANNEL. MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 16N TO 
THE WEST OF 80W...AND POSSIBLY SPILLING OVER CUBA INTO THE 
STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE EASTERN 
CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 17N60W 14N61W 9N62W IN NORTHEASTERN 
VENEZUELA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 10N IN 
NORTHERN VENEZUELA TO 15N BETWEEN 59W AND 67W. THIS IS THE SAME 
TROUGH THAT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH
OF THE ITCZ DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS. CLUSTERS OF LOW LEVEL TO 
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS THAT WERE IN THE 
ATLANTIC OCEAN AT 17/1200 UTC HAVE MOVED SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS 
THE ISLANDS AND WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN 60W AND 70W...AND NOW 
ARE TO THE NORTH OF 15N IN THAT SAME AREA. 

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N62W TO 20N68W.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 56W AND 
FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N72W TO 30N75W TO THE 
FLORIDA COAST NEAR 27N80W. THIS FRONT CONNECTS TO THE STATIONARY 
FRONT THAT CUTS ACROSS FLORIDA AND EVENTUALLY GOES INTO THE 
SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS 
THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 56W AND THE 32N72W 27N80W 
COLD FRONT...MOVES AROUND A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 28N68W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY PASSES THROUGH 32N48W TO 26N46W TO 20N46W AND
13N52W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N50W TO 20N47W. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 14N56W 17N48W 
24N41W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 38W AND 50W. SURFACE 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 
40W...MOVES AROUND A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 
30N26W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT