000 AXNT20 KNHC 180002 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST WED NOV 17 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 6N20W 8N31W 6N40W 4N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER WEST AFRICA FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 10W-14W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS IS FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 24W-36W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 40W-46W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM FORT PIERCE FLORIDA TO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 27N80W 25N85W. A WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO THE SW GULF NEAR 22N93W. THE FRONTS ARE MOSTLY VOID OF PRECIPITATION AND HAVE LITTLE TEMPERATURE CONTRAST. 5-10 KT NE WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT... WHILE 10 KT SE WINDS ARE S OF THE FRONT. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE GULF EXCEPT OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND W CUBA WHERE WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-22N BETWEEN 80W-86W DUE TO TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BACK SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH SW FLOW AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE. 70-110 KT UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE OVER THE NE GULF N OF 27N E OF 90W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE CURRENT FRONT TO DISSIPATE...AND ANOTHER FRONT TO MOVE OVER TO THE NW GULF FROM TEXAS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1010 MB LOW IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N82W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NW TO THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 19N85W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 77W-81W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 14N-22N BETWEEN 81W-87W. ELSEWHERE WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ALONG 60W PRODUCING SHOWERS S OF 17N E OF 65W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED E OF JAMAICA NEAR 18N74W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 75W-85W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN HAS STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT THE CONVECTION OVER THE W CARIBBEAN TO DRIFT W. ALSO EXPECT THE TROUGH OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO MOVE W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WEAK COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC MOSTLY VOID OF PRECIPITATION ALONG 32N75W 27N80W. A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 28N67W. A 1010 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N50W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO 25N49W 21N52W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH FROM 25N-32N BETWEEN 38W-47W. A 1021 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 29N25W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 60W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN 40W-60W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-50W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N E OF 40W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR... THE W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO MOVE E WITH SHOWERS...AND FOR THE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO MOVE SE WITH MOVE CONVECTION E OF THE CENTER. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA