000
AXNT20 KNHC 170600
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 AM EST WED NOV 17 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
 
FROM GUINEA NEAR 10N14W TO 7N20W 6N30W 5N40W...INTO NORTHWESTERN
FRENCH GUIANA. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 2N 
TO 7N BETWEEN 20W AND 25W...AND FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 28W AND 
32W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH
OF 10N BETWEEN 10W AND 50W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE
IS ALONG 15N58W 10N59W 6N59W IN GUYANA. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W...
AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 60W AND 63W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH ALABAMA INTO 
THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN GULF 
OF MEXICO...AND ALONG THE BORDER OF MEXICO AND THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT COLD FRONT THAT PASSES 
THROUGH THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...INTO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF 
MEXICO...TO 24N90W...TO THE MEXICO GULF COAST NEAR 20N. 
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 15 NM TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE FRONT FROM 21N94W TO 24N90W 27N85W...AND WITHIN 60 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 27N85W BEYOND 31N80W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ALSO WITHIN 15 NM TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 24N85W 27N82W
30N80W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 19N82W TO A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE 
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 15N82W TO 11N81W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE COLOMBIA COAST FROM LAND TO 12N 
BETWEEN 73W AND 74W...AND FROM 13N TO 14N BETWEEN 71W AND 72W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE 
WITHIN 210 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 11N73W 17N78W 20N81W 22N79W.
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N58W 10N59W 6N59W
IN GUYANA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 15N 
BETWEEN 60W AND 63W. IT IS EASILY POSSIBLE THAT THIS 
PRECIPITATION MAY REMAIN INTACT AS IT MOVES WESTWARD.
THAT MEANS THAT IT IS POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN 
ISLANDS...AND TRINIDAD AND COASTAL VENEZUELA TO RECEIVE
SOME PRECIPITATION DURING AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N70W TO 19N70W IN THE 
EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE 
ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 60W AND FLORIDA. A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN 
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS THE 37N48W 1008 MB 
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND TROUGH ALONG 37N48W THROUGH
32N47W 23N50W. THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON WATER 
VAPOR IMAGERY PASSES THROUGH 32N48W TO 25N49W TO 17N49W. ISOLATED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTH
OF 20N BETWEEN 36W AND 50W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES 
AROUND A RIDGE THAT STARTS FROM A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER 
THAT IS NEAR 32N18W...TO 29N29W TO 26N33W TO 17N35W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT