000 AXNT20 KNHC 162345 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST TUE NOV 16 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 6N20W 5N30W 5N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 18W-23W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 23W-30W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST N OF THE ITCZ FROM 14N57W TO 6N59W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 52W-56W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 31N85W 25N90W 20N97W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO N AND OF 27N AND W OF 89W. A SQUALL LINE IS N OF TAMPA FLORIDA FROM 30N82W TO 28N84W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 15 NM OF THE SQUALL LINE. 15-20 KT NW WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT...WHILE 10-15 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE S OF THE FRONT. FAIR WEATHER IS OVER TEXAS AND THE NW GULF...AS WELL AS OVER S FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BACK SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH SW FLOW AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE. 70-90 KT UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE OVER THE N GULF N OF 27N HELPING THE COLD FRONT MOVE E FASTER. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM S FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1008 MB LOW IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N82W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS N TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. PATCHES OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER THE NW AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-20N BETWEEN 70W-82W. THE SYSTEM IS DRIFTING WNW. MORE WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N VENEZUELA AND N COLOMBIA. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...AND OVER CUBA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED S OF JAMAICA NEAR 17N77W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 70W-82W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN HAS STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT THE CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO DRIFT W. ALSO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO ADVECT OVER TRINIDAD AND THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS DUE TO AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 34N67W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A 1006 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 35N50W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N43W 25N47W 20N50W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-32N BETWEEN 40W-47W. A 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 32N21W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 60W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN 40W-60W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS N OF 22N BETWEEN 50W-60W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N E OF 40W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR...A COLD FRONT TO BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N74W TO S FLORIDA WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT RESIDUAL SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA/RAMOS