000 AXNT20 KNHC 161757 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST TUE NOV 16 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N12W 7N20W 3N30W 3N43W 4N52W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 250 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 18W-29W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 15W-18W...WITHIN 200 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 29W-33W...AND WITHIN 300 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 12W-26W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E HALF OF THE U.S. DIPPING S OVER TEXAS AND THE NW GULF W OF LINE FROM APALACHEE BAY FLORIDA TO TAMPICO MEXICO SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE GULF AT 16/1500 UTC OVER MOBILE BAY ALABAMA ALONG 28N91W TO INLAND OVER BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AND A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR FORT WALTON BEACH ALONG 28N89W TO 25N93W. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM NEAR VALDOSTA GEORGIA ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NEAR 26N88W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVERING THE AREA WITHIN 150/180 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF 27N. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF WATERS ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE GULF S OF LINE FROM TAMPA FLORIDA TO TAMPICO MEXICO AND A JET STREAM WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 125 KT IS N OF THIS LINE AND STRONGER WINDS INLAND OVER THE NE GULF COAST. THIS IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED MOVE ACROSS THE GULF AND INTO THE SE GULF ON WED WITH A SECOND FRONT MOVING INTO THE NW GULF ON THU. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1009 MB LOW REMAINS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N78W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 18N75W ALONG 14N73W TO OVER NW VENEZUELA NEAR 11N69W AND WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 14N80W TO 13N73W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED S OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 15N71W AND EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE W ATLC. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN NW OF A LINE FROM CUBA NEAR 21N79W TO HONDURAS NEAR 16N85W AND THE NE CARIBBEAN ROM SE CUBA NEAR 20N76W ACROSS SW HAITI TO E VENZUELA NEAR 10N64W. EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW TO CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 60W WITH A SURFACE RIDGE N OF 20N BETWEEN 60W-75W ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 33N69W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVER THE W ATLC W OF 53W. AN ELONGATED DEEP LAYERED LOW IS OVER THE N/CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE UPPER/SURFACE LOW CENTERED N OF THE REGION AND THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S TO 16N BETWEEN 45W-60W. THIS UPPER SYSTEM IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N44W ALONG 25N47W TO 19N52W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY DESCRIBED ABOVE. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 15N E OF 40W ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH NE OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS PROVIDING THE AREA E OF 30W FAIR WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. A SURFACE TROUGH IS INT HE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 14N57W TO 8N56W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 9N-14N W OF 50W TO THE TROUGH AXIS AND S OF 11N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA W OF THE TROUGH AXIS TO 60W. THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES AND SHOULD REACH THE ISLANDS ON WED. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW