000 AXNT20 KNHC 161145 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST TUE NOV 16 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... FROM SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W TO 5N30W 4N40W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL THROUGH THE EQUATOR ALONG 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 3N TO 7N BETWEEN 16W AND 19W...AND FROM 5N TO 9N BETWEEN 22W AND 33W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 50W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 15N54W INTO NORTHEASTERN COASTAL GUYANA NEAR 6N57W. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 53W AND 54W...AND WITHIN A 15 NM TO 30 NM RADIUS OF 7N58W IN COASTAL GUYANA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 7N TO 13N BETWEEN 50W AND 56W...AND FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 57W AND 63W INTO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NORTHEASTERN TEXAS INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 18N102W AT THE MEXICO COAST...TO 25N90W BEYOND NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE MOISTURE. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...CURVING TOWARD THE CENTRAL TEXAS GULF COAST. RAINSHOWERS COVER THE AREA FROM THE WATERS THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 85W IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND 90W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI TO 28N92W AND 26N96W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA DOES NOT HAVE A LOT OF DEPTH IN THE ATMOSPHERE. IT EXTENDS ROUGHLY FROM THE SURFACE TO 600 MB OR SO. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ROUGHLY COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES TO THE EAST OF 72W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST OF JAMAICA TO A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 12N77W...TO THE COLOMBIA COAST NEAR 9N76W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 19N BETWEEN 66W AND 82W...INCLUDING IN AND AROUND EASTERN JAMAICA...COASTAL VENEZUELA AND COASTAL COLOMBIA. ANY KIND OF DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS SHOULD BE SLOW...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO DRIFT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 75W/76W. THIS RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BEYOND 32N72W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS ROUGHLY TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE THAT STARTS NEAR 16N84W IN HONDURAS...TO 20N80W...TO 17N70W AND 14N60W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES OVER WINDWARD PASSAGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA...BEYOND 32N72W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N70W TO 25N70W AND 20N85W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS THE 35N50W 1004 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND TROUGH ALONG 35N50W 32N47W 27N50W 21N60W 24N66W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 25N70W 21N65W 20N60W...AND WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 22N60W 26N52W BEYOND 32N47W. A REMNANT CLOUD LINE IS ALONG 24N49W 20N55W 18N60W INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N64W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 15 NM TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE CLOUD LINE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 32N38W 26N46W 19N54W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 19N53W 27N45W 33N40W. THIS TROUGH IS SUPPORTED BY AN EARLIER MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHOSE MAIN CYCLONIC CENTER IS NEARLY 1200 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE 35N50W LOW PRESSURE CENTER. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 29N24W 18N40W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT