000
AXNT20 KNHC 160542
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 AM EST TUE NOV 16 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...
 
FROM SOUTHERN SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W TO 4N27W 5N37W...INTO
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 3N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE BETWEEN 13W 
AND 38W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 54W TO THE SOUTH OF 15N.
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE 
FROM 7N TO 13N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W...WITH SOME RAINSHOWERS
REACHING NORTHERN COASTAL GUYANA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO 
NORTHERN MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 18N102W AT THE MEXICO 
COAST...TO 25N90W BEYOND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA. COMPARATIVELY 
DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS ON EITHER SIDE OF MOISTURE.
A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA 
COAST...TOWARD THE LOWER TEXAS GULF COAST...AND THEN NORTHWARD
INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 27N93W BEYOND 30N89W IN SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA
DOES NOT HAVE A LOT OF DEPTH IN THE ATMOSPHERE. IT EXTENDS 
ROUGHLY FROM THE SURFACE TO 600 MB OR SO. UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ROUGHLY COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH 
OF THE GREATER ANTILLES TO THE EAST OF 72W. A SURFACE TROUGH 
EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST OF JAMAICA TO A 1008 MB LOW 
PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 12N77W...TO THE COLOMBIA COAST NEAR 9N76W.
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 18N BETWEEN 
65W AND 82W...INCLUDING IN AND AROUND EASTERN JAMAICA.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 76W. THIS RIDGE EXTENDS INTO
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BEYOND 32N73W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE IS ROUGHLY TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE THAT STARTS
NEAR 15N84W IN HONDURAS...TO 19N80W...TO 16N67W AND 15N60W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES OVER EASTERN CUBA FROM THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA...BEYOND 32N73W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 
32N73W TO 19N84W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. A CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS THE 
SURFACE LOW CENTER AND TROUGH. A 1003 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
IS NEAR 35N50W. A TROUGH CURVES AWAY FROM THE LOW PRESSURE 
CENTER TO 32N47W 28N50W 25N56W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS 
ARE WITHIN 125 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 26N54W BEYOND 32N48W.
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N39W TO 28N44W
AND 23N48W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED 
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 125 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 20N53W
26N46W BEYOND 32N39W. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN EARLIER 
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHOSE MAIN CYCLONIC CENTER
IS NEARLY 1200 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE 35N50W LOW PRESSURE
CENTER. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N20W TO 26N29W AND
17N37W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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MT