000 AXNT20 KNHC 160003 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST MON NOV 15 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 4N25W 5N35W 4N46W 3N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 11W-17W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 11W-15W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-4N BETWEEN 19W-23W...AND FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 19W-26W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST N OF THE ITCZ FROM 15N53W TO 5N52W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 52W-55W...AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 49W-55W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S LOUISIANA TO SE TEXAS ALONG 29N91W 27N97W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE FRONT FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 92W-94W. ONLY 5-10 KT VARIABLE WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT...WHILE 20-25 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE S OF THE FRONT DUE TO A TIGHTER SURFACE GRADIENT. THE E GULF OF MEXICO E OF 90W ALSO HAS 10-20 KT SOUTHERLY FLOW IN MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BACK SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PRODUCING SW FLOW. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF S OF 28N. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS ARE N OF 28N ESPECIALLY E OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E AND EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NE MEXICO WITH SHOWERS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1008 MB LOW IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N76W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS N TO JAMAICA. PATCHES OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 76W-80W...AND FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 70W-73W. THE SYSTEM IS DRIFTING WNW. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...AND OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO INCLUDE NW VENEZUELA AND THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 15N83W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WHILE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N75W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A 1000 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 34N53W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 32N48W 29N49W 25N58W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 47W-50W. AN OLD DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS ALSO OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N40W 24N47W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. A WEAK DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS S OF THE CANARY ISLANDS ALONG 28N13W 28N20W 32N24W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 60W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN 40W-60W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS N OF 22N BETWEEN 50W-60W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N E OF 60W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR...THE SURFACE LOW TO MOVE NE WITH ITS TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH RESIDUAL SHOWERS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA