000 AXNT20 KNHC 151744 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST MON NOV 15 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 4N24W 3N36W 4N46W 6N52W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 10W-15W AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 7N BETWEEN 17W-25W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE ITCZ FROM 27W-31W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 13N52W TO 7N54W WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE TROUGH. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E HALF OF THE U.S. DIPPING S OVER TEXAS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY/WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT 15/1500 UTC THAT ENTERS THE NW GULF OVER VERMILION BAY LOUISIANA TO A 1007 MB LOW NEAR 29N93W AND A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUING SSW TO THE COAST OF MEXICO JUST S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 28N92W TO INLAND OVER THE N GULF COAST NEAR THE ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI BORDER AND WITHIN 30 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF WATERS ANCHORED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE GULF S OF LINE FROM CEDAR KEY FLORIDA TO TUXPAN MEXICO AND A JET STREAM WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 120 KT IS N OF THIS LINE AND STRONGER WINDS INLAND OVER THE N GULF COAST. THIS IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE GULF SE OF LINE FROM PANAMA CITY FLORIDA TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND SWEEP ACROSS THE GULF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1008 MB LOW REMAINS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N77W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM W JAMAICA THROUGH THE LOW TO 10N76W AND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF UNORGANIZED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION DOT THE AREA FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 70W-75W... FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 75W-81W...AND FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 74W-80W. THE LOW IS CURRENTLY SITUATED ON THE S SIDE OF AN UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED JUST S OF JAMAICA AND EXTENDS NW INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN NW OF A LINE FROM PUERTO RICO W ALONG THE S COAST OF HISPANIOLA THEN SW TO THE TIP OF NICARAGUA/HONDURAS. EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW/SURFACE TROUGH TO CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 65W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVERING THE SAME AREA. A DEEP LAYERED LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE UPPER/SURFACE LOW CENTERED N OF THE REGION AND THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S TO 24N BETWEEN 45W-65W. THE UPPER SYSTEM IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N51W ALONG 27N56W TO 24N62W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120/150 NM E OF THE TROUGH N OF 26N. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 15N48W NE ALONG 23N40W TO BEYOND 32N31W WITH A STATIONARY FRONT JUST TO THE W ENTERING THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N42W TO 26N48W. THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND COUPLED WITH THE FRONT ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150/175 NM OF LINE FROM 23N50W TO BEYOND 32N40W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR E ATLC DIPPING S TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS E OF 30W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THE ENTERS THE E ATLC OFF MOROCCO AFRICA NEAR 28N11W ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS BECOMING STATIONARY NEAR 29N21W NW OUT OF THE REGION NEAR 32N25W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BRIDGING THIS FRONT COVERING THE E ATLC N OF 20N E OF 40W PROVIDING THE AREA E OF 35W FAIR WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW