000
AXNT20 KNHC 151148
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 AM EST MON NOV 15 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
 
FROM SOUTHERN SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N12W TO 4N20W 2N30W 2N44W...
INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL THROUGH THE EQUATOR ALONG 50W. WIDELY 
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 6N11W 4N18W... 
TO THE EQUATOR AT 30W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND 
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM TO 180 NM ON EITHER 
SIDE OF 3N30W 3N40W 6N49W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 15N49W TO 
12N51W 8N52W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 6N TO 15N BETWEEN 45W AND 56W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO 
NORTHERN MEXICO TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
AN UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET STREAM MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL 
MEXICO...EASTERN TEXAS AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO...BEYOND LOUISIANA. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH
THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...TO A 1010 MB LOW 
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS ALONG THE COAST JUST TO THE EAST OF
CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM 23N98W IN NORTHEASTERN 
MEXICO...TO 26N90W...BEYOND 29N80W IN NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA. 
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST OF 21N97W 25N90W.
A SEPARATE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 26N88W 22N86W...THROUGH THE 
YUCATAN CHANNEL...TO 18N87W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. 
BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 
30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 15N84W FROM NORTHEASTERN 
HONDURAS TO THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO 27N89W...AND 
ELSEWHERE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 25N TO THE EAST 
OF 87W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES AROUND A SURFACE RIDGE 
THAT IS ALONG 22N82W IN WESTERN CUBA...TO A 28N82W BEYOND 32N78W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF 14N 
TO THE WEST OF 70W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 16N70W 13N78W...
TO A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 13N78W...AND 
CONTINUING TO 9N81W. ANY TYPE OF DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE 
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS SHOULD BE
SLOW TO OCCUR. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN 
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA IN AND TO THE WEST OF LAKE MARACAIBO. 
STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE TO THE NORTH OF 
THE PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA FROM 12N
TO 15N BETWEEN 71W AND 74W...AND WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 
11N78.5W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE
TO THE SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN 62W AND 81W IN BROAD SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF 70W...SHEARING SOME OF THE
CLOUD TOPS THAT ARE IN THE AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A TROUGH IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 35N54W TO 26N58W TO 22N62W TO 
21N72W. A 1000 MB GALE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 35N54W...WITH 
A SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE LOW CENTER THROUGH 32N52W TO 27N60W
27N66W AND 29N70W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE 
NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 50W AND 57. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE 
ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND COASTAL AREAS THAT ARE TO
THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE REMNANT CLOUD LINE/SHEAR AXIS.
A REMNANT CLOUD LINE/SHEAR AXIS IS ALONG 31N43W TO 23N50W TO 
20N55W 19N61W...TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO. STRONG 
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 25N TO 28N BETWEEN 
40W AND 46W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 25N46W 20N56W...CURVING TOWARD PUERTO RICO AND 
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH MOROCCO NEAR 
32N6W 30N10W AND 29N19W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 28N TO 
30N BETWEEN THE COASTS OF MOROCCO AND THE SPANISH SAHARA AND 
20W...IN AREAS OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL 
CLOUDS. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND A 1017 MB 
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N27W...FROM 20N TO THE COLD 
FRONT BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE REMNANT CLOUD LINE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT