000 AXNT20 KNHC 142354 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SUN NOV 14 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1009 MB LOW IS LOCATED N OF PANAMA NEAR 12N78W CONTINUING TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF UNORGANIZED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NE OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 67W-76W...FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 76W-80W...AND FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 80W-83W. THE LOW IS CURRENTLY SITUATED UNDER THE ERN EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH WEAK BROAD UPPER TROUGHING TO THE E. THIS IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO SUPPORT THE AREA OF CONVECTION. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS W-NW. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 5N25W 1N37W 2N46W EQ53W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 13W-22W. ISOLATED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-7N BETWEEN 28W-44W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS N OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 14N47W TO 4N52W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MAINLY ZONAL WLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AROUND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED IN THE WRN CARIBBEAN ACCOMPANIED BY A MODERATELY DRY AIRMASS. THIS IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF WITH WEAK SURFACE RIDGING CENTERED OVER NRN FLORIDA ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR THE BIG BEND AT 30N83W. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL JET CENTERED OVER THE WRN GULF COAST STATES IS SUPPORTING A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE NW GULF. AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1011 MB LOW IS JUST OFF THE SRN COAST OF TEXAS NEAR 27N97W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS TO THE S ALONG 25N96W 21N97W SUPPORTING POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE AXIS. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS TO THE E OF THE CENTER TO NEAR 28N94W CONNECTING TO A STATIONARY FRONT WHICH EXTENDS TO THE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 29N91W AND CONTINUING NE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ELSEWHERE...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST E OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 25N87W TO 20N87W SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. EXPECT THE SYSTEM IN THE NW GULF TO REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS BEFORE AN APPROACHING LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH MOVES IN LATE MONDAY STRENGTHENING THE SYSTEM AND MOVING IT EWD. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1009 MB LOW IN THE SW CARIBBEAN REMAINS THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. IT CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 67W-76W...FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 76W-80W...AND FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 80W-83W. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. THE SYSTEM REMAINS UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE ERN CARIBBEAN WHICH IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO SUPPORT SOME OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHOWER ACTIVITY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO NOTED ACROSS THE SRN WINDWARD ISLANDS AS AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE MOVES WWD FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC. EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH ACROSS THE W ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT AN OCCLUDED 997 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 34N57W. THE LOW HAS SUPPORTED SEVERAL FRONTAL BOUNDARIES THROUGHOUT ITS LIFETIME. A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS NEAR THE LOW CENTER ALONG 31N55W TO 28N60W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 49W-56W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS ALONG 32N43W TO 20N58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 24N BETWEEN 40W-49W...AND N OF 28N BETWEEN 33W-40W. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN ATLC AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TO THE AZORES ISLANDS. THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALSO SUPPORTING A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 26N31W WHICH IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ERN ATLC. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 6N35W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AROUND THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH IS AIDING SOME OF THE CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON