000 AXNT20 KNHC 141737 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SUN NOV 14 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1009 MB LOW IS LOCATED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA CENTERED NEAR 11N78W THAT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF UNORGANIZED WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION COVERING THE AREA FROM 09N-16N BETWEEN 73W-82W. SATELLITE IMAGERY EXHIBITS A FAIRLY BROKEN MODERATE INTENSITY CONVECTIVE BAND THAT EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW NEAR 11N80W TO 14N79W THEN EASTWARD TO 14N74W. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LOCATE ITSELF BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA ANCHORED ON AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NICARAGUA NEAR 13N85W. THIS IS PROVIDING AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT AND LOWERED SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE ONGOING CONVECTION...AND THEREFORE SLOW AND GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES W-NW. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 10N14W 03N30W 05N48W 06N51W 06N62W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-06N BETWEEN 03W-20W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 01N-06N BETWEEN 27W-39W AND FROM 05N-09N BETWEEN 39W-45W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ...ANALYZED FROM 03N49W TO 13N47W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AS IT HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW SIGNS OF DAMPENING OUT OVER THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLC OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 03N-11N BETWEEN 45W-55W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW RESIDES OVER THE GULF AND SUPPORTS A MODERATELY DRY AIRMASS ALOFT. HOWEVER...AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE GULF NEAR MOBILE BAY AND EXTENDS SW TO 28N92W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY INTO A 1015 MB LOW CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS NEAR 26N97W. A STATIONARY FRONT ALSO EXTENDS SOUTH FROM THE LOW TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR TAMPICO. BROWNSVILLE DOPPLER RADAR AS WELL AS SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE LOW CENTER...AND RELATIVELY OVERCAST CONDITIONS NORTH OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY COVERING THE AREA N OF 27N W OF 91W. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. A FEW AREAS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE LOCATED IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM 23N-24N BETWEEN 81W-84W...AND NORTH OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 85W-88W. LOOKING AHEAD...THE LOW IN THE NW GULF IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY N-NE AND THEN INLAND OVER LOUISIANA EARLY TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE DESERT SW AND PROGRESSES OVER TEXAS MONDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1009 MB LOW CENTERED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN IS DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION AND CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 16N BETWEEN 73W-82W. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NICARAGUA NEAR 13N85W THAT EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EASTWARD ALONG 12N TO ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 11N51W. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS SPREAD EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL AND SE CARIBBEAN WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15N73W TO SE OF TRINIDAD NEAR 09N60W. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS ALSO MAXIMIZED OVER THIS AREA IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DUE TO STRETCHED AND ELONGATED TROUGHING FROM THE SPECIAL FEATURES LOW. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN N OF 17N IS EXPERIENCING MOSTLY LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES FILTERING SOUTH FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS. DUE TO THE NE FLOW...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ON THE NORTHERN COASTS OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO THROUGH THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH LONG PERIOD SWELLS EXPECTED E OF 70W THROUGH LATE MONDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN WELL OCCLUDED DEEP LAYERED GALE FORCE 998 MB LOW REMAINS SPINNING OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC CENTERED NEAR 34N59W SUPPORTING A PAIR OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES THAT EXTEND INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA. ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW...A STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED ALONG 32N44W SW TO 19N58W. A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 28N-33N BETWEEN 35W-44W...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS LOCATED FARTHER SW WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT N OF 25N. CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE LOW...A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N53W TO 25N59W AND EXHIBITS ENHANCED CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS EAST OF THE NEXT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH N OF 28N BETWEEN 52W-60W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER FAIRLY STABLE AND DRY CONDITIONS DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION BETWEEN 60W-75W. THE EASTERN ATLC IS LARGELY INFLUENCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 11N51W TO 32N34W THAT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A 1018 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 26N28W AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW TO 20N52W. ELSEWHERE...A COLD FRONT CLIPS THE FAR NE CORNER OF THE EASTERN ATLC ANALYZED FROM 32N15W TO 31N23W THEN STATIONARY BEYOND 32N28W. ENHANCED CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS N OF 27N BETWEEN 08W-21W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN