000 AXNT20 KNHC 140536 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SUN NOV 14 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0535 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1009 MB LOW IS LOCATED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA CENTERED NEAR 11N77W THAT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF UNORGANIZED WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION COVERING THE AREA S OF 18N BETWEEN 71W-80W. AS THIS AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS SLOWLY MOVED WESTWARD OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...IT CONTINUES TO LOCATE ITSELF BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS IS PROVIDING AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT FOR THE ONGOING CONVECTION. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT DRIFTS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT ...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W WESTWARD ALONG 3N20W 2N30W 3N40W 5N50W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN IN THE ITCZ...ANALYZED FROM 11N45W TO 2N47W. THIS TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 3N TO 11N BETWEEN 42W AND 48W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER LEVEL SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE DRY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE GULF. THIS SCENARIO SUPPORTS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...EXCEPT FOR THE NW GULF DUE TO A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 30N91W TO THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 22N97W. OVERCAST LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WEST OF THE FRONT. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD AND EXTEND ACROSS THE N CENTRAL BASIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE SPECIAL FEATURE 1009 MB LOW OVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 18N BETWEEN 71W-80W. ELSEWHERE...LINGERING CONVECTION IS OBSERVED OVER THE CENTRAL AND NE BASIN S OF PUERTO RICO AND DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BETWEEN 65W AND 70W. OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NW BASIN DUE TO A DRY AND SUBSIDENT AIRMASS NOTICED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN OCCLUDED DEEP LAYERED 999 MB GALE FORCE LOW REMAINS SPINNING OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC CENTERED NEAR 34N61W. THIS SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING THAT DIPS WELL SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN ISLANDS OF THE BAHAMAS. AS AN UPPER LEVEL JETSTREAK/SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND THE MAIN DEEP LAYERED LOW...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N57W AND EXTENDS SW TO NEAR 26N61W. A SURFACE TROUGH FOLLOWS WITHIN 100 NM BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THESE TWO FEATURES ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 27N BETWEEN 56W AND 63W. THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ALSO SUPPORTS AN OLD STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS SW FROM A DISSIPATING SURFACE LOW NEAR 32N38W TO THE SW ATLC ALONG 29N45W 25N52W 20N57W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 23N. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1019 MB HIGHS CENTERED NEAR 24N40W AND 27N26W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA