000
AXNT20 KNHC 132346
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 PM EST SAT NOV 13 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1009 MB LOW IS LOCATED OFF THE COASTS OF N COLOMBIA NEAR 
11N77W. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE LOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE AN 
AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 8N-17N BETWEEN 
73W-82W. THE LOW LIES UNDERNEATH THE ERN EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE COVERING THE WRN CARIBBEAN PROVIDING FAVORABLE CONDITIONS 
FOR POSSIBLE SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS WESTWARD.

...ITCZ...
 
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 4N20W 3N35W 6N45W 4N52W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA 
FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 9W-15W. AN EMBEDDED SURFACE TROUGH IS FROM 
12N43W TO 3N46W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
1N-10N BETWEEN 37W-49W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM LOUISIANA TO NE 
MEXICO ALONG 29N92W 23N98W. 20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS...OVERCAST LOW 
CLOUDS...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO W 
OF THE FRONT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IS OVER THE E GULF E 
OF 90W WITH 10-15 KT NE WINDS AND MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. BROKEN 
LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE HOWEVER OVER THE YUCATAN 
CHANNEL. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... ZONAL FLOW WITH STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD 
FRONT TO DRIFT E AND EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NE 
MEXICO WITH SHOWERS.     

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1009 MB LOW IS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN S OF 17N BETWEEN 
63W-73W TO INCLUDE NW VENEZUELA AND THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES.  
IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE 
COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 13N82W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE NW 
CARIBBEAN WHILE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE 
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 
24 HOURS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 997 MB GALE LOW IS N OF THE AREA OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 
34N63W. REINFORCING SURFACE TROUGHS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC N OF 20N W OF 50W MOVING W. AN OLD STATIONARY FRONT IS 
ALSO OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 30N43W 28N50W 21N58W.  
EXTENDS SW FROM THIS LOW TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AT 19N60W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1019 MB HIGH IS OVER 
THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 27N27W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N W OF 50W. AN UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BETWEEN 
30W-50W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC E OF 30W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 
24 HOURS FOR...THE FRONT TO DRIFT E WITH RESIDUAL SHOWERS.    

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA