000 AXNT20 KNHC 131957 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SAT NOV 13 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1009 MB LOW IS LOCATED OFF THE COASTS OF COLOMBIA AND PANAMA IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA CENTERED NEAR 11N77W. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE LOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 75W-84W...AND FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 73W-76W. THE LOW CURRENTLY LIES UNDERNEATH THE ERN EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE WRN CARIBBEAN WHICH IS CURRENTLY PROVIDING FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR POSSIBLE SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS WESTWARD. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W ALONG 3N25W 4N38W 6N48W 9N55W 8N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 7W-10W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 30W-38W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 11N41W 3N42W PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 1N-11N BETWEEN 38W-43W...AND SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 44W-47W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 49W-52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT HAS NOW PUSHED ITS WAY INTO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO FROM NEAR LAFAYETTE LA NEAR 30N92W TO THE SRN TIP OF TEXAS NEAR 26N97W INTO MEXICO TO NEAR 23N99W...AS OF 1500 UTC. RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 100 NM BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS TO 20 KT ARE ALSO BEHIND THE FRONT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SW GULF ALONG 24N96W TO 18N95W SUPPORTING POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM GEORGIA SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM THE WRN CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE SE CONUS. EXPECT THE FRONT TO STALL TONIGHT AND TOMORROW BEFORE MOVING SE ACROSS THE GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1009 MB LOW IN THE SW CARIBBEAN IS PRODUCING AREAS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF COLOMBIA AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. THE LOW IS CURRENTLY UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH IS EXTENDS NWD TO THE SE UNITED STATES. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS TO THE E PROVIDING AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF VENEZUELA FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 66W-74W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS HISPANIOLA FROM 19N69W TO 18N75W SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. EXPECT THE FRONT TO DIE OUT WITH CONVECTION TO CONTINUE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN OCCLUDED 1000 MB LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN IN THE NW ATLC NEAR 33N64W SUPPORTED BY A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING TO THE NE CARIBBEAN. DUE TO SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES...THE LOW HAS MULTIPLE FRONTAL TROUGHS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE FIRST TROUGH...CLOSEST TO THE CENTER EXTENDS FROM 32N61W TO 28N65W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM AHEAD OF IT. A SECOND FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N56W ALONG 25N63W 22N73W WITH NO ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS ALONG 32N52W ALONG 24N58W ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO 18N75W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM. FARTHER E...A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM N OF THE AREA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING ALONG 32N46W 28N47W 26N53W 20N58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 46W-52W...AND WITHIN 30 NM E OF THE AXIS S OF 25N. THIS AREA OF ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE W ATLC AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 30W-55W. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 28N23W. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON