000 AXNT20 KNHC 130557 CCA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SAT NOV 13 2010 ***** UPDATED TO CORRECT DATE ***** TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1009 MB LOW IS LOCATED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA CENTERED NEAR 11N76W THAT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF UNORGANIZED WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION COVERING THE AREA S OF 15N BETWEEN 72W-80W. AS THIS AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS MOVED WESTWARD OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...IT CONTINUES TO LOCATE ITSELF BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS IS PROVIDING AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT FOR THE ONGOING CONVECTION. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N12W WESTWARD ALONG 6N17W 3N25W 5N32W 6N40W 8N50W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED WITHIN THE ITCZ REGION FROM 12N33W TO 5N37W. WEAK LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ W 18W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE GULF SUPPORTING SURFACE RIDGING AND LIGHT ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THUS...MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS PERSIST THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS INCREASING OVER THE NW GULF DUE TO A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER SE TEXAS...EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW GULF OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 10 HOURS WITH CONVECTION AHEAD OF IT. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE SPECIAL FEATURE 1009 MB LOW OVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 15N BETWEEN 72W-80W. THE BASE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPS DOWN OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXHIBITING OVERALL DRY AIR ALOFT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING SUPPORTS A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE BASIN OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND EXTENDS SW TO THE WEST COAST OF JAMAICA NEAR 18N78W. THEN...A REMNANT CLOUD/SHEAR LINE CONTINUES TO NEAR 12N82W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS OBSERVED IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT...NOR THE SHEAR LINE. ON THE OTHER HAND...LINGERING CONVECTION IS OBSERVED OVER THE FAR NE BASIN S OF PUERTO RICO FROM A PREVIOUS FRONTAL SYSTEM NOW OVER THE ATLC BASIN. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NW BASIN DUE TO A DRY AND SUBSIDENT AIRMASS NOTICED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN OCCLUDED DEEP LAYERED 1000 MB GALE FORCE LOW REMAINS SPINNING OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC CENTERED NEAR 33N62W. THIS SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING THAT DIPS WELL INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES AROUND THE MAIN DEEP LAYERED LOW...A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N55W AND EXTENDS SW ALONG 25N60W 21N67W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE IN THE CARIBBEAN NEAR SEA 20N74W WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION. THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ALSO SUPPORTS A 1009 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N48W. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE FAR NE CARIBBEAN ALONG 26N51W 22N57W 17N62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 24N TO 29N BETWEEN 36W AND 45W. FARTHER EAST...THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N23W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA