000 AXNT20 KNHC 122353 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST FRI NOV 12 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1009 MB LOW IS LOCATED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA CENTERED NEAR 11N76W THAT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF UNORGANIZED WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION COVERING THE AREA FROM 09N-16N BETWEEN 73W-80W. AS THIS AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS MOVED WESTWARD OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...IT CONTINUES TO LOCATE ITSELF BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS IS PROVIDING AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT FOR THE ONGOING CONVECTION... HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION LACKS LOWER LEVEL CYCLONIC SUPPORT AS E TO NE WINDS WERE DEPICTED ON AN EARLIER 12/1458 UTC ASCAT PASS. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 07N12W 04N21W 07N35W 06N42W 08N59W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED WITHIN THE ITCZ REGION FROM 03N37W TO 13N32W. WEAK LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OCCURRING FROM 06N-11N BETWEEN 28W-35W. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 30W AND A BASE VERY NEAR THE ONGOING CONVECTION AT 08N32W. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-08N BETWEEN 25W-28W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NORTHWARD TO OVER THE SE CONUS AND SUPPORTS SURFACE RIDGING THAT ENVELOPES THE ENTIRE GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS EVENING. OVERALL...MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS PERSIST...HOWEVER...WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS ESTABLISHED ALONG 88W...MOIST E TO SE LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 92W-95W. THIS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN GULF AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL TEXAS...EMERGES OFF THE TEXAS COAST AND INTO THE NW GULF WATERS EARLY SATURDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... A DRY AND SUBSIDENT AIRMASS IS LOCATED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA TO SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 18N92W. THIS AREA OF GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER COINCIDES WITH SURFACE RIDGING THAT EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND REMAINS N OF 16N W OF 75W. FARTHER SE...THE SPECIAL FEATURE 1009 MB LOW CONTINUES GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 16N BETWEEN 73W-80W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXISTS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF 16N E OF 76W AND EXHIBITS OVERALL DRY AIR ALOFT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING. THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE BASIN OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR BARBUDA AND EXTENDS SW TO NEAR 16N66W WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS LOCATED N OF 16N E OF 68W. FINALLY...A COLD FRONT IS POSITIONED ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC AND TRAILS ALONG 20N BETWEEN 68W-74W...NORTH OF HISPANIOLA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL IN THE VICINITY AND SOUTH OF THE WEAKENING FRONT WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY OVER PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND PORTIONS OF JAMAICA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYERED 999 MB GALE FORCE LOW REMAINS SPINNING OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC CENTERED NEAR 33N63W. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DIPS WELL INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND REMAINS LARGELY INFLUENTIAL BETWEEN 55W-80W OVER THE W ATLC WATERS. ON THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGHING...A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N45W AND EXTENDS SW INTO A 1009 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N51W THEN ALONG 25N53W TO THE NE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N63W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM SE OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 48W-60W. AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES AROUND THE MAIN DEEP LAYERED LOW...A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED WEST OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AS A COLD FRONT FROM 32N51W 23N60W TO NW OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N74W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WEST OF THE COLD FRONT TO CUBA AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. FARTHER EAST...THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED E OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS NEAR 33N14W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN