000 AXNT20 KNHC 121706 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST FRI NOV 12 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 4N20W 8N34W 6N40W 6N55W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 15W-18W. AN EMBEDDED SURFACE TROUGH IS FROM 13N31W TO 3N35W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 27W-36W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-8N BETWEEN 28W-36W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 49W-53W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE SW BAY OF CAMPECHE. 10-15 KT NE WINDS ARE E OF THE AXIS WHILE 10-15 KT SE WINDS ARE W OF THE AXIS. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER FLORIDA AND THE E GULF E OF 90W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 24N AND W OF 90W MOSTLY DUE TO RETURN FLOW. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 88W. A BAND OF SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS EXTEND FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC NEAR 20N106W TO THE WESTERN GULF NEAR 25N95W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO BE ALONG THE TEXAS COAST WITH CONVECTION. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 19N60W TO 16N66W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 16N AND E OF 66W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO FURTHER WEST OVER PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA N OF 18N BETWEEN 66W-74W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 73W-79W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FURTHER W OVER COSTA RICA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 81W-85W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...HONDURAS...BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN 83W-92W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN EAST TO WEST UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 12N E OF 83W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND THE S CARIBBEAN S OF 12N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWERS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN S OF 15N OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 998 MB LOW IS N OF THE AREA OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 34N64W. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N52W TO E CUBA ALONG 25N60W 21N70W 21N75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1009 MB LOW IS FURTHER E NEAR 27N52W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THIS LOW TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AT 19N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A STATIONARY FRONT ALSO EXTENDS NE FROM THIS LOW TO BEYOND 32N45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-32N BETWEEN 42W-47W. A 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 35N15W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 22N W OF 50W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BETWEEN 35W-50W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC E OF 35W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR...THE COLD FRONT TO MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT WITH RESIDUAL SHOWERS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA/MONTALVO