000
AXNT20 KNHC 120603
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 AM EST FRI NOV 12 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM SIERRA LEONE NEAR 9N13W TO 7N21W 8N30W 9N33W 8N55W...INTO
NORTHERN COASTAL GUYANA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS 
TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 11W 
AND 14W TO THE SOUTH OF LIBERIA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 
3N TO 6N BETWEEN 15W AND 23W...AND FROM 2N TO 10N BETWEEN 36W
AND 60W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 14N29W 10N31W 6N32W. WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 14N BETWEEN 26W AND 36W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN
NEW MEXICO INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW MOVES FROM 19N104W 23N100W 27N87W...BEYOND THE FLORIDA 
PANHANDLE. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES AROUND A RIDGE 
THAT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA 
AND COASTAL HONDURAS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE AREA.
A STATIONARY FRONT GOES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 22N60W
THROUGH THE ANEGADA PASSAGE TO 17N65W. A WEAK REMNANT CLOUD 
LINE/SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 17N65W TO 14N74W TO THE COLOMBIA 
COAST NEAR 11N74W. RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE 
OF 17N65W 18N62W 21N58W...AND FROM THE COLOMBIA COAST TO 16N
BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE IN BROKEN TO 
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS THAT FROM THE HONDURAS COAST
TO 19N BETWEEN 84W AND 90W. 

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N54W TO 28N60W TO 
24N68W. THIS COLD FRONT IS UNDER UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW THAT 
IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 54W AND 8OW. A STATIONARY FRONT 
GOES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 22N60W THROUGH THE ANEGADA 
PASSAGE TO 17N65W. A WEAK REMNANT CLOUD LINE/SHEAR AXIS 
CONTINUES FROM 17N65W TO 14N74W TO THE COLOMBIA COAST NEAR 
11N74W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 21N30W CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 15N33W AND 6N40W. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 30N23W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS 
ALONG 24N31W 19N34W. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N 
TO 16N BETWEEN 31W AND 34W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE 
FROM 17N TO 18N BETWEEN 31W AND 36W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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MT