000
AXNT20 KNHC 111728
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 PM EST THU NOV 11 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N13W 6N20W 8N25W 7N40W 6N53W. 
AN EMBEDDED SURFACE TROUGH IS OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 
14N24W TO EQ25W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
5N-13N BETWEEN 17W-29W...AND FROM 2S-3N BETWEEN 23W-30W.  

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH 
AXIS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE SW BAY OF CAMPECHE. 10-15 
KT NE WINDS ARE E OF THE AXIS WHILE 10-15 KT SE WINDS ARE W OF 
THE AXIS. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER FLORIDA AND THE E GULF E 
OF 90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W MOSTLY 
DUE TO RETURN FLOW. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE 
IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W. A BAND OF SCATTERED HIGH 
CLOUDS EXTEND FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC NEAR 20N106W TO LOUISIANA 
COVERING THE NW GULF. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED 
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND W GULF W OF 
93W.    

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1010 MB LOW IS N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 21N63W. THE 
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO N COLOMBIA ALONG 
15N68W 12N71W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
IS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ATLANTIC FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 
60W-63W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST 
OF N COLOMBIA IS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 72W-76W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FURTHER W FROM 8N-12N 
BETWEEN 76W-78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER PUERTO RICO... 
HISPANIOLA...AND THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 
63W-73W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER COSTA RICA AND 
THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 81W-86W...AND ARE OVER THE 
NW CARIBBEAN FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 81W-89W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS 
...A RIDGE IS PRODUCING SOUTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE 
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND 
CLOUDS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND THE S CARIBBEAN S OF 
12N. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N46W 
24N60W 21N63W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
21N-24N BETWEEN 56W-60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 
90 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1030 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 
36N16W. AN EMBEDDED SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE TROPICAL E 
ATLANTIC NW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 25N29W 19N31W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE TROUGH AXIS. IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED E OF THE 
WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 11N55W PRODUCING ANTICYCLONIC WINDS W OF 
40W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 
20N33W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N26W. EXPECT 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR...THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FRONT TO 
WEAKEN WITH RESIDUAL SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT THE LOW N OF THE 
LEEWARD ISLANDS TO DISSIPATE.       

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA