000 AXNT20 KNHC 102349 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST WED NOV 10 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN SURINAME NEAR 03N57W TO 13N54W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITHIN BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL... 700 MB...RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL SUBTROPICAL ATLC NEAR 19N54W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF INTERIOR FRENCH GUIANA AND EASTERN SURINAME. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 04N26W 02N34W 05N52W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED WITHIN THE ITCZ REGION FROM 01N24W TO 11N21W. BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 04N-08N BETWEEN 17W-25W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 08N BETWEEN 25W-38W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW LOCATES OVER THE GULF THIS EVENING BETWEEN A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. BENEATH THIS FLOW ALOFT... SURFACE RIDGING ENVELOPES THE ENTIRE GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS. WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS ALONG 88W...LOW-LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE...AS WINDS SHIFT E TO SE...IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM THE NORTHERN TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N89W TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR GALVESTON BAY. THIS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN GULF IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONT EMERGES OFF THE TEXAS COAST EARLY SATURDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 16N62W AND EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WESTWARD TO OVER NICARAGUA AND NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL SUBTROPICAL ATLC TO 30N45W. BENEATH THIS UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED IN THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 19N68W THAT EXTENDS A SURFACE TROUGH S-SW TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 12N72W. WHILE NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH...IT LARGELY DELINEATES BETWEEN E-SE TRADES OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND LESSER ANTILLES...AND GENERALLY LIGHT NE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND GREATER ANTILLES. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE LOCATED OVER NE CARIBBEAN IN THE VICINITY OF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 16N E OF 67W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS AND NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. WEST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...AREAS OF POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 77W-88W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF HONDURAS...AND S OF 13N W OF 81W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC AS A 994 MB STORM FORCE LOW CONTINUES SPINNING CENTERED NEAR 39N64W. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DIPS TO 30N AND REMAINS LARGELY W OF 52W. ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGHING BETWEEN 40W-50W...A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N48W AND EXTENDS S-SW ALONG 25N50W 21N59W THEN BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 21N65W AND INTO A 1008 MB LOW CENTERED IN THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 19N68W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EAST OF THE FRONT N OF 27N AND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 49W-59W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM 16N-24N BETWEEN 59W-66W. FARTHER EAST...THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED S OF THE AZORES NEAR 37N27W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN