000 AXNT20 KNHC 101153 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EDT WED NOV 10 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 3N50W 13N55W MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE. ...THE ITCZ... FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA 11N15W TO 9N19W...6N22W 2N33W TO 4N48W. ITCZ PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 6N TO 11N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 20W...FROM 1N TO 2N BETWEEN 25W AND 31W...AND WITHIN A 30 NM TO 60 NM RADIUS OF 1N46W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS WITH THE ITCZ ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 11N TO THE EAST OF 60W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 20W/21W FROM 4N TO 12N...NEARLY STATIONARY. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 24W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AND MEXICO. THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COLORADO AND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TOWARD SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO. HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW...FROM MEXICO NEAR 20N106W THROUGH 24N100W...PARALLELING THE TEXAS COAST TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. SOME OF THAT HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 24N TO THE WEST OF 90W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...MOVING OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND A RIDGE THAT GOES FROM A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N87W BEYOND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO HONDURAS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT THAT EMANATES FROM THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF TOMAS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN PASSES THROUGH 32N51W TO 30N51W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 30N51W TO 25N53W TO 21N50W... CURVING ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO...TO A CARIBBEAN SEA 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 17N68W...ABOUT 70 NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF PUERTO RICO. THE 24-HOUR FORECAST IS FOR THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO BE NEAR 20N67W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 64W AND 66W...AND FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 60W AND 63W. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS SECTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 50W. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE WATERS THAT ARE JUST TO THE WEST OF BERMUDA...TO 31N68W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N68W TO 30N70W AND 30N75W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT. THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF TOMAS IS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 37N58W. A COLD FRONT THAT EMANATES FROM THE LOW CENTER PASSES THROUGH 32N51W TO 30N51W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 30N51W TO 25N53W TO 21N50W...CURVING ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO...TO A CARIBBEAN SEA 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 17N68W...ABOUT 70 NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF PUERTO RICO. THE 24-HOUR FORECAST IS FOR THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO BE NEAR 20N67W. POSSIBLE LINGERING RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 19N TO 23N BETWEEN 49W AND 60W. ONE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 32N41W WITH LITTLE TO NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. A SECOND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 24N45W. A THIRD CYCLONIC CENTER IS NEAR 20N36W. POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 40W AND 45W...AND FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 32W AND 36W. A CUT-OFF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS NEAR 20N20W. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 14N TO 25N BETWEEN 16W AND 30W. A SURFACE 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 21N25W. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 19N TO 25N BETWEEN 22W AND 29W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT