000 AXNT20 KNHC 091150 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EDT TUE NOV 09 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N47W 12N46W 7N46W...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MIXED WITH ITCZ PRECIPITATION FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. ...THE ITCZ... FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE AT 7N12W TO 5N25W 6N45W 7N48W... TO COASTAL SURINAME ALONG 56W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 50W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MIXED WITH ITCZ PRECIPITATION FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W...RELATED TO THE 17N47W 7N46W TROPICAL WAVE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 18W FROM 4N TO 10N. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 3N TO 7N BETWEEN 10W AND 20W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE AFTER THE LAST COLD FRONT SPANS THE GULF WATERS. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...ACROSS MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 22N...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS...INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND A RIDGE THAT PASSES THROUGH 26N72W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 25N79W...TO A 29N89W SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER...TO 20N97W ALONG THE MEXICO GULF COAST. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE TO THE WEST OF THE LINE FROM CUBA NEAR 23N84W 26N84W 29N90W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT ORIGINATES FROM THE 998 MB TOMAS GALE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO 20N61W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 20N61W... THROUGH THE ANEGADA PASSAGE TO A 1007 MB CARIBBEAN SEA LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 14N70W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. SURFACE NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA THAT IS TO THE WEST OF JAMAICA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THIS FLOW IS RELATED TO THE GULF OF MEXICO SURFACE RIDGE. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE REMNANT LOW OF TOMAS IS A 998 MB GALE LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N60W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N62W TOWARD THE REMNANT LOW OF TOMAS NEAR 27N65W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE 998 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO A 27N58W TRIPLE POINT. A WARM FRONT GOES FROM THE TRIPLE POINT TO 20N54W. A COLD FRONT GOES FROM THE TRIPLE POINT TO 20N61W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 20N61W...THROUGH THE ANEGADA PASSAGE TO A 1007 MB CARIBBEAN SEA LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 14N70W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N58W 24N53W 19N60W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 31N51W 26N46W 19N40W 14N47W. RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 14N46W 16N40W 22N39W 25N44W 28N45W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...TOWARD THE REMNANT LOW CENTER. THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW NOW IS IN PHASE WITH THE BROAD LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW THAT COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 60W. A CUT-OFF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS NEAR 20N234W. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 14N TO THE EAST OF 30W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES AROUND A 34W/35W RIDGE THAT RUNS FROM 18N TO 32N. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT