000
AXNT20 KNHC 090553
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 AM EDT TUE NOV 09 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N46W 11N47W 6N48W...MOVING WESTWARD
10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE SHOWED UP REALLY WELL IN THE LAST VISIBLE 
SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE DAY ON 08/1815 UTC. STRONG RAINSHOWERS 
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MIXED WITH ITCZ PRECIPITATION FROM 8N TO 
10N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA AT 10N14W TO 7N20W 6N30W 8N47W...TO
COASTAL SURINAME ALONG 56W BEYOND 6N60W IN NORTHWESTERN GUYANA.
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED 
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 4N9W 
4N30W 6N40W 5N50W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE 
MIXED WITH ITCZ PRECIPITATION FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 
50W...RELATED TO THE 17N46W 6N48W TROPICAL WAVE.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. DRY AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE AFTER THE LAST COLD FRONT SPANS THE GULF WATERS.
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN 
PACIFIC OCEAN...ACROSS MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 22N...ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
BAHAMAS...INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC 
WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND A RIDGE THAT PASSES THROUGH 28N78W
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO A 29N89W SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA
1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER...TO 21N98W ALONG THE MEXICO
GULF COAST.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT ORIGINATES FROM THE 998 MB TOMAS GALE LOW PRESSURE 
CENTER TO 26N59W AND 20N62W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 
20N62W TO A 1007 MB CARIBBEAN SEA LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS 
NEAR 15N70W. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO 
60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM 18N62W TO 17N64W 16N68W 
15N70W. SURFACE NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE 
AREA THAT IS TO THE WEST OF JAMAICA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.
THIS FLOW IS RELATED TO THE GULF OF MEXICO SURFACE RIDGE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE REMNANT LOW OF TOMAS IS A 998 MB GALE LOW PRESSURE CENTER 
THAT IS NEAR 27N63W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N62W TOWARD 
THE REMNANT LOW OF TOMAS NEAR 28N67W. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES 
FROM THE 998 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO 26N59W AND 20N62W.
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 20N62W TO A 1007 MB CARIBBEAN 
SEA LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 15N70W. RAINSHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE 
LINE FROM 28N59W 24N55W 20N57W 18N62W...AND LEADING INTO THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 18N62W TO 17N64W 16N68W 15N70W. AN UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 31N51W 26N47W 22N43W 18N42W 14N46W. 
RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO
120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 14N46W 18N40W 24N41W 29N45W. UPPER 
LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES THROUGH THE STRAITS OF 
FLORIDA...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...TOWARD THE REMNANT LOW CENTER. 
THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW NOW IS IN PHASE WITH THE BROAD 
LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW THAT COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE 
NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 60W. A CUT-OFF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
CENTER IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS NEAR 21N24W. CYCLONIC FLOW 
COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 14N TO THE EAST OF 30W. BROAD 
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES AROUND A 35W RIDGE THAT RUNS 
FROM 17N 32N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT