000 AXNT20 KNHC 080001 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SUN NOV 07 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W WESTWARD ALONG 7N20 6N30W 6N40W 7N50W TO THE COAST OF GUYANA NEAR 8N58W. THE ITCZ IS FAIRLY QUIET THIS EVENING...WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 170 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 32W AND 38W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER THE GULF THIS EVENING PROVIDED BY VERY DRY AIR ALOFT AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA OF DISCUSSION. MARINE OBS AND LOW LEVEL SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE NORTHEAST 5 KT TO 10 KT SFC FLOW ACROSS THE GULF. SATELLITE VISIBLE IMAGERY ONLY SHOWS LOW LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVING SOUTHWARD S OF 28N. AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES IN ACROSS THE SE CONUS...EXPECT SURFACE COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH NO CHANGE IN WINDS TO CONTINUED ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS DOMINATING ACROSS THE AREA. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE ATLC OCEAN AND ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE AND CONTINUES TO THE CENTRAL BASIN ALONG 18N68W 16N70W 15N74W. STRONG SFC CONVERGENCE AND CYCLONIC CURVATURE ARE AROUND THE TROUGH AXIS...ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 68W AND 72W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS N OF 15N E OF 68W. SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION IS OVER THE FAR SW BASIN S OF 11N W OF 77W DUE TO CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE ITCZ EXTENDING ACROSS PANAMA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE WEST CARIBBEAN. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TO THE W OF 74W... PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS AND ADVECTING COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS IN THIS AREA. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD WITH CONVECTION REMAINING OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OFF THE EASTERN CONUS SEABOARD SUPPORTING A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N67W AND CONTINUES S TO 28N70W. TO THE S OF THE FRONT IS THE REMNANT 997 MB LOW OF FORMER TROPICAL STORM TOMAS NEAR 26N68W. A SFC TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM EAST OF THE REMNANT LOW OF TOMAS...EXTENDING SOUTH TO THE MONA PASSAGE AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 26N67W 21N66W 18N68W. SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION IS WITHIN 110 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. THE MAIN CORE OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF THE REMNANT LOW OF TOMAS COVERS FROM 25N TO 28N BETWEEN 65W AND 69W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. EVEN THOUGH TOMAS IS NOW A REMNANT LOW..IT IS STILL PRODUCING STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 80 NM EAST OF THE SEMICIRCLE...125 NM SW QUADRANT AND 175 NM NW QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER ARE WITHIN 240 NM ON THE NE QUADRANT...120 NM ON THE SE QUADRANT...330 NM ON THE SW QUADRANT...AND 300 NM ON THE NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 21 FT. MODEL DATA SUGGESTS A FAIRLY STRONG SUBTROPICAL UPPER LEVEL JETSTREAK OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC AND COINCIDES WITH A SHARP HIGH AMPLITUDE MID-UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTING A SURFACE 1006 MB LOW NEAR 30N54W WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 37N52W TO THE LOW CENTER AND THEN S TO NEAR 23N52W. THIS SYSTEM IS GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 19N TO 32N BETWEEN 39W AND 48W. THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA