000 AXNT20 KNHC 071128 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SUN NOV 07 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TOMAS AT 07/0900 UTC IS NEAR 26.2N 68.8W. THIS LOCATION IS ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM SSW OF BERMUDA. TOMAS IS MOVING NE AT 6 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF TOMAS HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY THUS STORM INTENSITY IS LESSENED BY 5 KT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE STILL WITHIN 20 NM OF THE E SEMICIRCLE. THE MAIN CORE OF CONVECTION IS NOW OVER OPEN WATER E OF THE BAHAMAS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 65W-69W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS N OF TOMAS PRODUCING SHOWERS N OF TOMAS. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS FROM 7N11W TO 4N20W 4N40W 10N57W 9N62W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF LIBERIA FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 8W-12W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-5N BETWEEN 23W-30W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED ON THE ITCZ ALONG 56W FROM 8N-17N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A 1031 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER MISSISSIPPI NEAR 32N91W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO THE SW BAY OF CAMPECHE. COOL 15-20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS COVER THE E GULF E OF THE RIDGE AXIS...WHILE 10 KT EASTERLY WINDS ARE W OF THE AXIS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE OVER THE S GULF S OF 27N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 92W. VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR...CONTINUED SURFACE COLD AIR ADVECTION... WITH NO CHANGE IN WINDS. ALSO EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...AND NO CONVECTION ELSEWHERE. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... COOL 20-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH BROKEN COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS. FURTHER S...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 78W-82W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS S OF OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO NW VENEZUELA ALONG 20N68W 10N70W DRIFTING E. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COASTS OF VENEZUELA AND N COLOMBIA FROM 10-13N BETWEEN 69W-73W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 64W-70W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CARIBBEAN S OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N71W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 71W. EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH TO DRIFT E TO 66W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION E OF 73W. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER PANAMA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... TOMAS IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE. A STATIONARY FRONT IS N OF TOMAS FROM 32N68W TO 28N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 69W-72W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 30N50W 18N54W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-24N BETWEEN 37W-50W ...AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-32N BETWEEN 44W-53W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR...A SURFACE LOW TO FORM NEAR 27N51W AND MOVE NW TO 33N56W...WHILE TOMAS FURTHER WEAKENS DUE TO INCREASED SHEAR AND DRIFTS E. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA