000 AXNT20 KNHC 070545 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SUN NOV 07 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TOMAS AT 07/0300 UTC IS NEAR 25.2N 69.6W. THIS LOCATION IS ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM NNE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND...OR ABOUT 570 MI...915 KM SSW OF BERMUDA. TOMAS IS MOVING NNE AT 9 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A 700-MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM OF 75 KT...A PEAK SFMR WIND OF 61 KT...AND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 987 MB...THUS TOMAS WAS UPGRADED BACK TO A HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE WITH 20 NM OF THE E SEMICIRCLE. THE MAIN CORE OF CONVECTION IS NOW OVER OPEN WATER E OF THE BAHAMAS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-27N BETWEEN 68W-71W. IN ADDITION SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 67W-71W. A COLD FRONT IS N OF TOMAS DRIFTING E...AND PRODUCING FRONTAL CONVECTION N OF TOMAS. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS FROM 6N11W TO 3N25W 9N40W 11N55W 10N62W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF LIBERIA FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 8W-11W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-5N BETWEEN 21W-30W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED ON THE ITCZ ALONG 55W FROM 7N-15N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS FROM LOUISIANA TO THE SW BAY OF CAMPECHE. COOL 15-20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS COVER THE E GULF E OF THE RIDGE AXIS...WHILE 10 KT EASTERLY WINDS ARE W OF THE AXIS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE OVER THE S GULF S OF 26N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 92W. VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR...CONTINUED SURFACE COLD AIR ADVECTION... WITH NO CHANGE IN WINDS. ALSO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...AND NO CONVECTION ELSEWHERE. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... COOL 20-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH BROKEN COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS. FURTHER S...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA FROM 9N-10N BETWEEN 80W-83W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS S OF OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO NW VENEZUELA ALONG 20N69W 10N70W DRIFTING E. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF VENEZUELA AND N COLOMBIA FROM 10-12N BETWEEN 64W-73W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO N OF 18N BETWEEN 65W-68W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CARIBBEAN S OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N71W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 71W. EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH TO DRIFT E TO 67W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION E OF 73W. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER PANAMA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... TOMAS IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE. A COLD FRONT IS N OF TOMAS FROM 32N68W TO 27N70W DRIFTING E. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 69W-71W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 29N49W 19N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 46W-50W ...AND WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 45W-52W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR...THE SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE W TO 56W...WHILE THE SURFACE FRONT DRIFTS E... AND TOMAS WEAKENS DUE TO INCREASED SHEAR. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA