000 AXNT20 KNHC 061752 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT NOV 06 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS AT 06/1500 UTC IS NEAR 23.1N 70.6W. TOMAS IS MOVING INTO THE OPEN WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ABOUT 100 NM TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND. TOMAS IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD 14 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/ WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 22.5N TO 24N BETWEEN 69W AND 71W AROUND THE CENTER. MORE SIMILAR PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER FROM 25N TO 29N BETWEEN 69W AND 71W. ...THE ITCZ... FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 9N14W TO 4N23W 7N36W 7N44W 7N54W. DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 40W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 34W/35W FROM 9N TO 14N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 34W AND 36W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 27W AND 34W ARE IN AN AREA OF BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE UNDER UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 14N43W 8N45W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 6N TO 18N BETWEEN 37W AND 56W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N59W TO A 27N50W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 20N51W TO 14N53W...AND EVENTUALLY NORTHERN COASTAL GUYANA. A THIRD SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 16N50W 10N52W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND THEN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MEXICO. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO AND MEXICO...EXCEPT FOR THAT PART THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 32N11W 27N114W...INTO WHICH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING EASTWARD. COLD-AIR STRATIFORM CLOUDS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 29N84W 29N86W 28N90W 27N97W...MOVING SOUTHWARD. EXPECT COMPARATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE OPEN GULF WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT AFTER THE COLD FRONT. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... TROPICAL STORM TOMAS IS NOT IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA NOW. A BAND OF RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AROUND TOMAS TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. HEAVY RAIN HAS BEEN REPORTED IN COSTA RICA DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 17N71W 13N73W 9N77W NEAR THE GULF OF URABA NEAR COLOMBIA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON OF THE COASTS OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA FROM 70W TO 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE WATERS FROM VENEZUELA TO PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS BETWEEN 65W AND 67W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE FROM 15N TO THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BETWEEN 67W AND 70W. UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW CURVES AWAY FROM TROPICAL STORM TOMAS MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF 70W. THE SOUTHERN END OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES 14N53W AND NORTHERN COASTAL GUYANA. THE GFS MODEL DEVELOPS AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH CORRESPONDINGLY PUSHES EASTWARD. THE NOGAPS MODEL MOVES AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE SAME TIME PERIOD. IT DOES NOT MOVE THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH TO THE EAST COMPARATIVELY TOO MUCH AT ALL. COMPARATIVELY MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE HAS PUSHED ITS WAY MORE TO THE EAST... NOW TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE WESTERN EDGES OF HAITI TO 14N77W TO THE COSTA RICA/PANAMA BORDER. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N73W...TO THE BAHAMAS TO THE WEST OF 75W...TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE DRY AIR IS RUNNING RIGHT INTO THE MOISTURE THAT ACCOMPANIES TROPICAL STORM TOMAS. DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS TO THE EAST OF TOMAS AND ITS MOISTURE...BETWEEN 50W AND 63W. THIS DRY AIR IS TO THE WEST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N59W TO A 27N50W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER... TO 20N51W TO 14N53W...AND EVENTUALLY NORTHERN COASTAL GUYANA. MORE BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 19N TO 32N BETWEEN 40W AND 63W. THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN REMNANT CLOUD LINE/SHEAR AXIS FROM 24 HOURS AGO SEEMS TO BE ALONG 22N54W 25N60W BEYOND BERMUDA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT