000 AXNT20 KNHC 060600 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT NOV 06 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TOMAS AT 06/0600 UTC IS NEAR 21.4N 71.8W. THIS LOCATION IS ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM ENE OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND. TOMAS IS MOVING ENE AT 13 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE WITH 20 NM OF THE E SEMICIRCLE. THE MAIN CORE OF CONVECTION COVERS HAITI...THE WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS WITH NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN 70W-74W. FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES CONTINUES TO BE A THREAT OVER HAITI. A COLD FRONT IS NW OF TOMAS MOVING E...AND PRODUCING FRONTAL CONVECTION N OF TOMAS. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS FROM 10N14W TO 9N23W 11N34W 9N43W 11N51W 10N62W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED ON THE ITCZ ALONG 34W FROM 7N-14N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 30W-36W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED ON THE ITCZ ALONG 50W FROM 7N-15N. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-15N BETWEEN 44W-52W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 0300 UTC...A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 23N99W. COOL 15-20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS COVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE OVER THE NE GULF E OF 88W...AND OVER THE S GULF S OF 24N TO INCLUDE THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W. VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR...CONTINUED SURFACE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND NORTHERLY FLOW WITH NO CONVECTION. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AS OF 0300 UTC...A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FROM E CUBA NEAR 21N76W TO 14N80W. COOL 20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER. HURRICANE TOMAS IS LOCATED N OF HAITI PRODUCING HEAVY CONVECTION OVER WESTERN HISPANIOLA. SEE ABOVE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS S OF HISPANIOLA FROM 18N73W TO 13N74W TO PANAMA NEAR 9N78W MOVING E. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN N OF 15N BETWEEN 64W-71W ESPECIALLY OVER PUERTO RICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CARIBBEAN S OF HISPANIOLA. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 78W. EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION E OF 75W. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER PANAMA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AS OF 0300 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N70W TO 27N71W TO E CUBA NEAR 21N76W MOVING E. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 23N. TOMAS IS CENTERED N OF HAITI. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N34W 27N36W 25N40W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. EXPECT THE FRONT TO COMPLETELY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT A SURFACE TROUGH TO DEVELOP ALONG 50W N OF 20N...WHILE THE TWO SURFACE TROUGHS OVER THE TROPICS CONTINUE TO MOVE W WITH CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA