000 AXNT20 KNHC 060006 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI NOV 05 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TOMAS AT 06/0000 UTC IS NEAR 20.4N 73.1W. THIS LOCATION IS ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND. TOMAS IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 22 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE MAIN CORE OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER COVERS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND THE ISLAND OF HISPANIOLA. THE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN RELATED TO THIS SYSTEM IS DRAWING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FROM NORTHERN S AMERICA INTO A GREAT PORTION OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BASIN PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION BETWEEN 66W AND 75W N OF 12N. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 9N13W WESTWARD ALONG 8N20 10N30W 7N40W 8N50W BECOMING INDISTINCT AFTER 9N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 25W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ ANALYZED FROM 13N32W TO 6N34W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF THE ITCZ ANALYZED FROM 14N48W TO 9N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N TO 15N BETWEEN 45W AND 50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A CONTINENTAL DRY AND COLD AIRMASS HAS MOVED OVER THE GULF...AS MARINE OBS AND LOW LEVEL SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS SHOW GUSTY 20 KT TO 30 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF. ALSO...SATELLITE VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS S OF 26N W OF 88W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR IN SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGING OVER THE NE BASIN. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE NORTHERLY GUSTY WINDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN RELAX GRADUALLY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN ACROSS THE SE CONUS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD SFC CYCLONIC 15-20 KT FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN...IN ASSOCIATION WITH HURRICANE TOMAS AND A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS CUBA AND MOST OF THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG 22N78W 18N81W 16N85W. INTERESTING ENOUGH...TO SEE A COLD FRONT AND A HURRICANE WITHIN GEOGRAPHICAL DISTANCE IN THE CARIBBEAN IS QUITE RARE. THE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN RELATED TO THESE TWO FEATURES ALONG WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT IS DRAWING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FROM NORTHERN S AMERICA AND E PACIFIC REGION INTO A GREAT PORTION OF THE CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN BASIN PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION BETWEEN 66W AND 75W N OF 12N...AND BETWEEN 75W AND 82W S OF 13N. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS MOVING NORTHWARD IMPACTING HAITI AND DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. WHILE THIS CONVECTION WILL MOVE OUT OF HAITI AND CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS....COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THE CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD AFFECTING PUERTO RICO. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE EASTERN CONUS AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N70W AND CONTINUES SW ALONG 26N74W CROSSING THE BAHAMAS AND THEN CUBA ALONG 22N77W. DRY NW SFC WINDS UP TO 25 KT ARE TO THE WEST OF THE COLD FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT UP TO 180 NM AHEAD. EMBEDDED IN THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS HURRICANE TOMAS STARTING TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. SEE SPECIAL FEATURE ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD AND TOMAS TRACKS NNE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CONTINUED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED OVER A LARGE AREA OF THE W ATLC E OF THE FRONT. FARTHER EAST...LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS FOUND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 40 NM OF A REMNANT CLOUD/SHEAR LINE ANALYZED ALONG 28N48W 26N53W 29N61W. ALSO...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N33W EXTENDING S-SW TO 25N39W...THEN CONTINUES SW AS A SURFACE TROUGH TO NEAR 21N47W. SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION IS WITHIN 80 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA