000 AXNT20 KNHC 051800 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI NOV 05 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TOMAS AT 05/1800 UTC IS NEAR 19.8N 74.0W ABOUT TO MOVE THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. TOMAS IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD 10 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE WATERS BETWEEN HAITI...CUBA...AND JAMAICA...AND FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS TO THE NORTH OF 13N PASSING BEYOND HISPANIOLA BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA IS RECEIVING HEAVY AMOUNTS OF RAIN WITH TOMAS. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT GOES FROM 16N75W TO 12N76W TO 9N80W IN PANAMA. HEAVY RAINS HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN COSTA RICA DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE PASSING ACROSS THE BAHAMAS THAT ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 23N/24N BETWEEN 69W AND 76W. ...THE ITCZ... FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W TO 8N18W 9N23W 8N30W 5N40W 5N50W...BECOMING INDISTINCT AFTER 5N50W. SCATTERED STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 7N TO 12N BETWEEN 33W AND 40W. MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 18W AND 21W...AND FROM 2N TO 8N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W. THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NEAR 6N51W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS 21N48W 13N49W. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 6N TO 14N BETWEEN 45W AND 55W. ANOTHER TROUGH IS NEARBY...ALONG 10N51W 15N54W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND THEN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MEXICO. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS MEXICO AND THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT NOW PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO WESTERN CUBA INTO THE EAST CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WITH SPEEDS THAT RANGE FROM 20 KT TO 30 KT ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. SEA HEIGHTS ARE REACHING 15 FT ALSO. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... HURRICANE TOMAS STILL IS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE AT THIS MOMENT. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN 69W AND 82W. A BAND OF RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF HURRICANE TOMAS... TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. HEAVY RAINS HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN COSTA RICA DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE COLD FRONT THAT HAS BEEN IN THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS NOW IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...PASSING OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA TO THE EAST-CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. EXPECT NORTHWESTERLY-TO- NORTHERLY WINDS RANGING FROM 20 KT TO 33 KT AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 FT TO 12 FT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THAT ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN IMMEDIATELY TO THE EAST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA ARE PUSHING CLOUD LINES AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS FROM 60W TOWARD THE AREA THAT IS BEING COVERED BY HURRICANE TOMAS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N75W TO ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS BEYOND CUBA NEAR 22N79W TO 17N80W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE ALSO IS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA THAT IS BEING AFFECTED BY HURRICANE TOMAS...ABOUT 700 NM TO THE EAST OF 61W/62W...FROM THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS NORTHWARD TO 32N. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N73W TO ABACO ISLAND IN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...BEYOND WESTERN CUBA TO THE EAST CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 72W/73W FROM 23N TO 30N. HURRICANE TOMAS IS STILL JUST OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF HAITI...FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N33W TO 26N40W. A REMNANT CLOUD LINE/SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 26N40W TO 23N48W. RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. A SECOND REMNANT CLOUD LINE/SHEAR AXIS IS ALONG 30N40W 27N50W 27N56W 30N61W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS CLOUD LINE. RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 30N TO 33N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W TO THE NORTH OF THE CLOUD LINE NEAR AN AREA OF MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 30W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N23W 26N19W TO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE SPANISH SAHARA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT