000 AXNT20 KNHC 051202 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI NOV 05 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE TOMAS IS CENTERED NEAR 18.8N 74.79W AT 05/1200 UTC OR ABOUT 85 NM SSE OF GUANTANAMO CUBA AND ABOUT 130 NM W OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI MOVING NE AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 71W-78W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION SPREADS NORTH AND EAST OVER HISPANIOLA...THE MONA PASSAGE...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS... AND SE BAHAMAS FROM 15N-24N BETWEEN 67W-79W. TOMAS IS FORECAST TO TRACK NE THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC THROUGH LATE SATURDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL...FLOODING...AND MUD SLIDES OVER HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/ WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 09N13W 07N19W 10N30W 09N34W 05N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-09N BETWEEN 16W-22W AND FROM 02N-07N BETWEEN 21W-26W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ EXTENDING FROM 07N32W TO 16N28W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 27W-33W AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 06N-10N BETWEEN 32W-36W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 300 NM NORTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 36W-41W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN CONUS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM WEST PALM BEACH TO NEAR EVERGLADES CITY AND INTO THE GULF ALONG 26N81W TO 21N87W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A FAIRLY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND THIS RESULTS IN THE COLD FRONT LACKING ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION...AND THEREFORE REMAINING PRIMARILY A STRONG NORTHERLY WIND PRODUCER. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT OVER THE SE GULF AND FLORIDA KEYS THIS MORNING...BUT ARE MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD AND LOCATING OVER THE W ATLC WATERS. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS...INCLUDING GALE FORCE OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF...ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...THEN RELAX GRADUALLY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND PROVIDES THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT N OF 16N W OF 81W...AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT PROGRESSING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SE GULF THIS MORNING. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N72W. EMBEDDED BENEATH THIS FEATURE ALOFT ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS HURRICANE TOMAS WHICH CONTINUES TO TRACK NE TOWARD THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE MAIN CORE OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER HAS BLOSSOMED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS LOCATED ELSEWHERE FROM 15N-24N BETWEEN 67W-79W. TO THE SOUTH OF TOMAS...A WEAK MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM S OF TOMAS NEAR 14N75W TO COSTA RICA NEAR 10N84W. THIS SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOONAL FLOW ORIGINATES IN THE E PACIFIC REGION AND ALONG WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 09N-15N BETWEEN 70W-84W...INCLUDING INTERIOR PORTIONS OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. FARTHER EAST...SE TRADES PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 68W WITH LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOCUSING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM TRINIDAD N-NW TO THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE EASTERN CONUS AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N76W EXTENDING SW TO WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA THEN INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. A LARGE AREA OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED EAST OF THE COLD FRONT THAT ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT IS PROVIDING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS EXTENDING FROM NORTH OF HURRICANE TOMAS NEAR 21N TO BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 68W-78W. MOST OF THIS CONVECTION IS FOCUSED WITHIN 120 NM EAST OF A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N77W TO 30N74W. AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS EASTWARD AND TOMAS TRACKS NE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...CONTINUED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED OVER A LARGE AREA OF THE W ATLC E OF THE FRONT. WEST OF THE COLD FRONT...NW TO N WINDS UP TO 25 KT ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP W OF 70W BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE CONUS AND THE CIRCULATION OF TOMAS. FARTHER EAST...LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS FOUND WITHIN SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 30N40W TO 27N54W. ELSEWHERE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS ALONG 49W THAT DIPS SOUTHWARD TO NEAR 10N49W. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N35W EXTENDING S-SW TO 26N40W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM EAST OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE AZORES SW TO NEAR 28N32W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO ANALYZED FROM 30N22W TO THE W AFRICA COAST NEAR 24N16W AND EXHIBITS A CYCLONIC SHIFT IN LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN