000 AXNT20 KNHC 050550 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI NOV 05 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM TOMAS IS CENTERED NEAR 17.9N 75.3W AT 05/0600 UTC OR ABOUT 85 NM E OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 180 NM WSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI MOVING NNE AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 73W-77W. ELSEWHERE... SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION SPREADS NORTH AND EAST OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...EASTERN CUBA...AND HISPANIOLA THIS EVENING FROM 16N-23N BETWEEN 68W-77W. TOMAS IS FORECAST TO TRACK N-NE THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC THROUGH LATE SATURDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL...FLOODING...AND MUD SLIDES OVER HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/ WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 10N19W 10N28W 08N37W 08N48W 06N56W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-10N BETWEEN 11W-15W AND FROM 04N-08N BETWEEN 19W-23W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ EXTENDING FROM 07N29W TO 13N26W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 09N-15N BETWEEN 22W-32W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHES FROM THE ITCZ REGION NEAR 09N48W TO A WEAKNESS WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH NEAR 22N44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MAINLY LOCATED EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS FROM 07N-23N BETWEEN 38W-47W. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS ENHANCED DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 48W TO A BASE IN THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 08N45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN CONUS ACROSS THE NW GULF AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA TO NEAR TAMPA BAY AND INTO THE GULF ALONG 28N83W 23N90W TO 19N94W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A FAIRLY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND THIS RESULTS IN THE COLD FRONT LACKING ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION...AND THEREFORE REMAINING PRIMARILY A STRONG NORTHERLY WIND PRODUCER. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT OVER THE SE GULF AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...BUT ARE MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD AND LOCATING OVER THE W ATLC WATERS. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS... INCLUDING GALE FORCE OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF...ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...THEN RELAX GRADUALLY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND IS PROVIDING THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT N OF 16N W OF 82W...AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT PROGRESSING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SE GULF THIS EVENING. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N72W. EMBEDDED BENEATH THIS FEATURE ALOFT ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WHICH CONTINUES TO TRACK N-NE TOWARD THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A MAIN CORE OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF TOMAS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS LOCATED ELSEWHERE FROM 16N-23N BETWEEN 68W-77W. TO THE SOUTH OF TOMAS...LOW-LEVEL GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM S OF TOMAS NEAR 13N74W TO THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 10N81W. THIS SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOONAL FLOW ORIGINATES IN THE E PACIFIC REGION AND ALONG WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 09N-15N BETWEEN 71W-85W...INCLUDING INTERIOR PORTIONS OF COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA. FARTHER EAST...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EASTERLY TRADES OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN IS FOCUSING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM SAINT VINCENT N-NW TO ANGUILLA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE EASTERN CONUS AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N78W EXTENDING SW TO DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA THEN INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A LARGE AREA OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED EAST OF THE COLD FRONT THAT ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT IS PROVIDING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS EXTENDING FROM NORTH OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS NEAR 20N TO BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 70W-81W. AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS EASTWARD AND TOMAS TRACKS N-NE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...CONTINUED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED OVER A LARGE AREA OF THE W ATLC E OF THE FRONT. WEST OF THE COLD FRONT...NW TO N WINDS UP TO 25 KT ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FARTHER EAST...LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS FOUND WITHIN SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 30N41W TO 27N53W. ELSEWHERE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS ALONG 48W THAT DIPS SOUTHWARD TO NEAR 08N. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N36W EXTENDING S-SW TO 24N43W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM EAST OF THE FRONT N OF 29N. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE AZORES SW TO NEAR 26N35W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN