000 AXNT20 KNHC 041755 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT THU NOV 04 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS AT 04/1800 UTC IS NEAR 16.4N 76.2W...OR ABOUT 270 NM TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PORT-AU-PRINCE HAITI...AND ABOUT 110 NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA. TOMAS IS MOVING NORTHWARD 07 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/ WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT GOES FROM 10N80W JUST OFF THE PANAMA COAST...TO 11N77W TO 14N74W TO 19N75W IN THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN JAMAICA...CUBA...AND HAITI. OTHER SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN 78W AND THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA...AND IN THE WATERS FROM VENEZUELA TO THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BETWEEN 67W AND 70W. ...THE ITCZ... FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 6N11W TO 6N25W 5N35W 9N45W... AND BECOMING INDISTINCT AFTER 9N51W. DISORGANIZED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 1N TO 7N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W...AND FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 32W AND 42W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH CURVES FROM 13N24W TO 9N27W TO 5N27W. DISORGANIZED RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN 24W AND 32W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 46W/47W FROM 10N TO 20N. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 44W AND 46W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. A SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE SURINAME COAST NEAR 6N54W TO 9N58W TO 13N63W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 13N63W 9N57W 5N52W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N90W INTO THE WESTERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY-TO-NORTHERLY WIND FLOW COVERS MEXICO. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE TROUGH AND CYCLONIC CENTER COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE SURFACE FRONTAL CONSISTS OF A STATIONARY FRONT FROM NORTH FLORIDA TO A 1009 MB SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA LOW PRESSURE CENTER...AND A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO THE COAST OF MEXICO JUST TO THE WEST OF THE WEST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE GULF WATERS FROM 25N NORTHWARD INTO THE U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES BETWEEN 85W AND 90W. RAINSHOWERS COVER THE AREA FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO 27N BETWEEN 89W AND 91W...ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST. THIS PRECIPITATION IS RELATED TO REMNANT MOISTURE FROM A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... TROPICAL STORM TOMAS OBVIOUSLY IS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE AT THIS MOMENT. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN 67W AND 83W. A SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE SURINAME COAST NEAR 6N54W TO 9N58W TO 13N63W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. LOW CLOUDS AND RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT EXTENDS FROM 15N54W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 15N59W TO 16N63W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION COVER THE AREA ROUGHLY FROM SAINT LUCIA TO BARBUDA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA THAT IS NOT BEING TOUCHED BY T.S. TOMAS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF THE LINE FROM CUBA NEAR 23N81W TO THE HONDURAS COAST NEAR 15N84W...AND CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO FROM HONDURAS TO GUATEMALA TO BELIZE AND IN MEXICO FROM THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF 22N79W AT THE CUBA COAST BEYOND 32N74W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE MOISTURE IS RELATED TO THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH AND THE COLD FRONT THAT ARE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N51W TO 25N56W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N39W TO 29N40W TO 24N44W. RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT. A POST-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 32N42W 29N50W 29N56W TO 31N60W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 25N43W 20N46W 15N49W. RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 15N49W 16N47W...AND 20N46W 25N42W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 34W. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N12W...ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO A 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N19W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT